2026 released paper · 4052/02 · 23 October 2026
Paper 2: what was tested
A question-by-question review, topic heatmaps and an honest comparison with our pre-exam priorities and specimen papers.
90marks across 9 questions
14marks in Q3: algebra & equations
8vector marks after 1 in P1
7sequence marks; none in P1
The main lesson: P2 brought back several P1 gaps, but it also repeated algebra, graphs, statistics, probability and trigonometry. An untested P1 topic was a revision signal, not a promise that it would appear in P2.
Largest primary categories
Equations & inequalities 11; the integrated real-world problem 10; vectors 8; graphs, sequences and trigonometry 7 each.
Unexpected emphasis
Construction returned for 2 marks. Sequences took 7, and congruence/angle proof occupied Q5(b). The revised specimen underrepresented these.
Predicted skills that did appear
Matrix multiplication and interpretation; fractional-to-quadratic solving; sine area and non-right-angle rules; vector ratios and collinearity; a final modelling decision.
Predicted skills that did not
No cumulative-frequency curve or numerical SD; no extended coordinate geometry; no 3D trigonometry; no curve tangent or curve–line solving; no circle/radian segment task.
Question map
| Question | Marks | Content tested | Primary-topic split | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 7 | Two function graphs | Functions & graphs 7 | Printed pp. 4–5 |
| Q2 | 11 | Numbers, estimation and sequences | Numbers & indices 4; Sequences & patterns 7 | Printed pp. 6–7 |
| Q3 | 14 | Algebra, indices and equations | Equations & inequalities 7; Numbers & indices 2; Algebra & formulae 5 | Printed pp. 8–9 |
| Q4 | 11 | A prism, filling rate and circular scaling | Mensuration 5; Ratio, proportion & scales 3; Congruence & similarity 3 | Printed pp. 10–11 |
| Q5 | 7 | Construction and geometric proof | Construction 2; Congruence & similarity 3; Angles & polygons 2 | Printed pp. 12–13 |
| Q6 | 11 | Festival statistics, matrices and probability | Statistics 6; Matrices 3; Probability 2 | Printed pp. 14–15 |
| Q7 | 11 | A quadratic inside a trigonometry problem | Pythagoras, trig & bearings 7; Equations & inequalities 4 | Printed pp. 16–17 |
| Q8 | 8 | Column vectors and vector proof | Vectors 8 | Printed pp. 18–19 |
| Q9 | 10 | Population planning and compound interest | Integrated real-world problem 10 | Printed pp. 20–21 |
P2 topic heatmap
| Topic | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | Q6 | Q7 | Q8 | Q9 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equations & inequalities | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Integrated real-world problem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| Vectors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| Functions & graphs | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Sequences & patterns | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pythagoras, trig & bearings | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Numbers & indices | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Congruence & similarity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Statistics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Algebra & formulae | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Mensuration | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Matrices | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Ratio, proportion & scales | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Construction | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Angles & polygons | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Probability | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Circle properties | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coordinate geometry | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Financial arithmetic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Percentages | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rates, speed & travel graphs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| All topics | 7 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 90 |
Each number is an allocated mark, not a probability. One primary topic per subpart; darker cells mean more marks. The total row always covers the full paper even when topic rows are filtered.
Counting rule: Q9 stays together as a 10-mark integrated real-world problem. Compound interest, percentages and graph extrapolation are embedded within it. Q4(b)(i) is under similarity/scaling, with percentage changes embedded; Q8(a)(ii) is under vectors, with Pythagoras/distance embedded. Zero primary marks does not mean a skill was unused.
Recent P2 comparison
| Topic | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equations & inequalities | 8 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Numbers & indices | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Algebra & formulae | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Statistics | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Mensuration | 13 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| Pythagoras, trig & bearings | 0 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| Congruence & similarity | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Functions & graphs | 11 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| Integrated real-world problem | 10 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| Ratio, proportion & scales | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Vectors | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Sequences & patterns | 10 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Probability | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Coordinate geometry | 7 | 9 | 6 | 0 |
| Circle properties | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rates, speed & travel graphs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Financial arithmetic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matrices | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| Sets | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Construction | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Angles & polygons | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
| Percentages | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 90 | 90 | 90 | 90 |
Comparable 4052 papers only: each is out of 90. The older 4048 paper also labelled 2023 is excluded. Historical classifications are the previously audited ledger; 2026 is classified from the supplied scan.
Recurring areas
Equations: 8 → 12 → 10 → 11 marks. Vectors: 4 → 0 → 0 → 8. Matrices: 0 → 5 → 3 → 3. The final real-world task remains prominent at 10, 11, 9, 10.
A trend can break
Coordinates had 7, 9, 6 primary marks in 2023–2025, then 0 in 2026. Sequences moved 10 → 0 → 0 → 7; construction moved 0 → 0 → 0 → 2.
How the earlier predictions held up
All five “First” priority areas appeared at broad topic level. Their exact methods and settings did not all match. In particular, “graphs appeared” does not mean the predicted tangent or graphical equation question appeared. No single “accuracy percentage” is claimed.
| Earlier tier | Priority | Actual reference | Assessment | What matched / differed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First | Graphs | Q1: 7 marks | Partial method match | Table and curve plotting appeared, plus quadratic sketching. No tangent gradient or curve–line equation-solving task. |
| First | Quadratics / fractional equations | Q3(c); Q7(a)–(c) | Strong method match | A fractional equation genuinely led to a quadratic; the triangle question required forming an equation, factorising and rejecting a root. The revised specimen used a photo-border context and the formula, so its exact setting did not match. |
| First | Matrices | Q6(b): 3 marks | Strong method match | Quantities × unit values and interpretation appeared. Actual task used profit via P(D − C), rather than ticket revenue. |
| First | Non-right-angled trigonometry | Q7(a),(d): 7 primary marks | Strong method match | ½ab sin C, cosine rule and sine rule/obtuse angle appeared. No 3D angle or elevation problem. |
| First | Real-world problem | Q9: 10 marks | Broad structure match | Final multi-step modelling, graph use and justified decision appeared. The population, infrastructure and compound-interest context was not predicted by the revised coach problem. |
| Next | Coordinate geometry | No dedicated coordinate-geometry question | Miss | No line equation, intersection or coordinate area. Q8(a) used position vectors and a magnitude: this overlaps distance skills but is classified as vectors, not a successful extended-coordinate prediction. |
| Next | Vectors | Q8: 8 marks | Strong method match | Vector routes, ratios and a scalar-multiple collinearity proof appeared. No vector area-ratio question. |
| Next | Cumulative frequency / numerical SD | Q6(a) used different statistics | Miss at concept level | Statistics appeared, but as a pie chart and weighted mean. No CF graph, quartile reading or numerical SD calculation. |
| Next | Composite solids / scaling | Q4: 11 mixed-topic marks | Partial method match | Composite cross-section volume, filling rate and radius/area scaling appeared. No hemisphere composite surface or cubed similar-solid scale factor; the actual cylinders had equal heights and were not similar. |
| Short drill | Sequences | Q2(d): 7 marks | Underweighted | Arithmetic and geometric sequences plus a divisibility explanation appeared. The original P2 had a sequence question; the revised P2 omitted it. |
| Short drill | Construction / angles | Q5(a),(b)(ii): 4 primary marks | Underweighted | An accurate protractor construction and an angle proof appeared. The low historical P2 construction frequency did not rule this out. |
| Maintain | Probability / proof / algebra | Q3; Q5(b); Q6(c) | Mixed | Congruence, algebra and repeated independent-event probability mattered. No circle theorem, tree diagram, radians or segment-area question. |
Revised P2 specimen: question-by-question audit
The ten-question specimen written after P1 is assessed as it stood before this P2 was supplied. A transferable method is distinguished from a matching question structure.
| Specimen Q | Prepared content | Actual P2 | Match level | Evidence / limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matrices and percentages | Q6(b) | Close core method | Matrix product and meaning of entries; actual adds subtraction for profit. The ticket-price percentage extension did not recur. |
| 2 | CF and numerical SD | Q6(a) | Broad topic only | Actual statistics is pie chart + weighted mean. CF, SD calculation and misleading bar chart were absent. |
| 3 | Coordinate trapezium | None | No dedicated match | No extended line, intersection, ratio or area task. Position-vector magnitude is too narrow to count this question as a hit. |
| 4 | Field / mast trigonometry | Q7(a),(d) | Partial method match | Sine area and cosine rule transferable; actual mixes algebra, a quadratic and an obtuse-angle sine-rule choice. No 3D mast. |
| 5 | Curve and straight lines | Q1(a) | Partial method match | Table and curve plotting transfer, but actual function has two branches separated by x = 0. No tangent or suitable straight line. |
| 6 | Vectors and areas | Q8(b) | Close core method | Vector routes, section ratios and scalar multiples transfer. Actual asks collinearity and a ratio; no area ratio. |
| 7 | Photo-border quadratic | Q3(c); Q7(a)–(c) | Partial method match | Quadratic solving and rejecting a root transfer. The actual formation is trigonometric, and factorisation is explicitly required in Q7(b). |
| 8 | Circle proof and probability | Q5(b); Q6(c) | Broad methods only | Congruence and probability transfer, but no circle, radians, tree or conditional-sample-space task. |
| 9 | Composite vessel / similar solids | Q4 | Partial method match | Volume and scaling principles transfer. Actual uses a prism, a filling rate and equal-height cylinders rather than similar solids. |
| 10 | Coach decision | Q9 | Structure only | Final multi-step decision transfers. Population extrapolation and compound interest were omitted from the revised specimen. |
The original specimen also matters. Its Q8 included sequence work and an algebraic proof, so it offered preparation the revised specimen removed. Original Q1(b) covered changing the subject, relevant to actual Q3(d). Its sequence was quadratic rather than the actual arithmetic/geometric combination. Original Q2’s grouped statistics also missed the actual pie-chart and weighted-mean structure. Neither specimen predicted Q9’s population/compound-interest setting.
What to learn from the misses
- Keep a short drill for every syllabus strand. Low historical frequency did not eliminate construction.
- Practise statistics as a family: pie charts, weighted means, CF, spread and interpretation are different skills.
- For quadratics, retain factorisation, the formula and contextual checks. Actual Q7(b) explicitly demanded factorisation.
- For scaling, check what is fixed. Equal-height cylinders require direct formula ratios, not similar-solid rules.
- For real-world tasks, practise percentages, capacity, rounding and compound interest together with graph reading.