O-Level Science (Physics) - Theory Papers (P1 & P2)

Singapore-Cambridge GCE O-Level G3 Science (Physics) · Paper 1 (Physics MCQ, 20 questions) + Paper 2 (structured, 65 marks) · codes 5116 / 5076 / 5086 · 2010–2026

General

2025

2026

33 papers tagged (16 × P1, 17 × P2) · 997 questions/sub-parts · 110/112 syllabus learning outcomes ever tested · 5 papers on the new syllabus (5086, from 2024). Every question is tagged to the 5086 syllabus learning outcomes (112 outcomes in 16 topics); earlier papers (5116, 5076) are mapped onto the same codes so trends are comparable. Content removed from the syllabus is kept visible in the history but excluded from the predictions and the outcome counts. Predictions weight recent papers more heavily (half-life 6 years, 5086-syllabus papers ×1.6).

Year	Paper	Syllabus	What was asked — question by question	Removed content
2026Oct/Nov 2026	P2	5086 syl5086	Q1T 14mcomplete table of base quantities: SI unit and symbol for time (s) and temperature (K) Q2T 93mwavelength from a ripple-tank wavefront diagram (12 wavelengths between P and Q = 57.6 cm) Q3T 3, 46mname the two forces (air resistance/drag and weight) on a parachutist in a free body diagr Q4T 12, 136mresistance of wire W in series with 29 ohm resistor, from 100 mA, 2.9 V across the resisto Q5T 1, 3, 59mshow piston force is 2000 N by taking moments about the pivot of the arm (100 N, 25 N weig Q6T 147mtotal current in fuse X from motor 46 W + one 920 W element on 230 V (P closed, Q open) Q7T 12, 155mdraw plotting-compass needle directions at four positions around an iron-cored solenoid Q8T 165mage of wood from carbon-14 numbers 3.2e11 to 4.0e10 (3 half-lives of 5700 years) Q9T 2, 4, 610mtotal time from seeing hazard to stopping: thinking time plus braking time (v/a) Q10 optionalT 6, 7, 810menergy per gram of wax burnt that reaches the water (mass loss 1.8 g) Q11 optionalT 9, 10, 1110mangle of refraction from sin i / sin r = 1.5, with i = 90 - 51 = 39 degrees from the surfa	—
2025Oct/Nov 2025	P1	5086 syl5086	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T3Q4 T4Q5 T6Q6 T5Q7 T5Q8 T3Q9 T6Q10 T7Q11 T9Q12 T8Q13 T11Q14 T11Q15 T12Q16 T13Q17 T13Q18 T14Q19 T15Q20 T16	—
2025Oct/Nov 2025	P2	5086 syl5086	Q1T 94mtype of wave (longitudinal) produced in a spring by a hand moving backwards and forwards Q2T 114mdraw normal and reflected ray at a plane mirror on graph paper Q3T 25maverage speed of asteroid Dimorphos orbiting Didymos (radius 1.2 km, period 12 h) Q4T 1, 35mdefine mass and weight Q5T 12, 138mcharge passing through the cells in 340 s, with unit Q6T 4, 66mfree body diagram for cat resting on platform (weight and normal force) Q7T 55mmuscle force F holding a forearm and ball in equilibrium about the elbow Q8T 4, 154muse Newton laws to explain reduced balance reading means downward magnetic force on curren Q9T 164mone similarity and one difference between an alpha particle and a helium atom Q10T 7, 810marrangement and motion of particles in liquid region AB versus solid region CD Q11 optionalT 9, 10, 1610mfrequency of 0.12 nm X-rays from speed of EM waves in air Q12 optionalT 1410mchoose a fuse for a 3.2 kW electric oven using I = P / V	—
2024Oct/Nov 2024	P1	5086 syl5086	Q1 T4Q2 T3Q3 T3Q4 T4Q5 T5Q6 T6Q7 T6Q8 T8Q9 T9Q10 T9Q11 T10Q12 T11Q13 T12Q14 T13Q15 T13Q16 T13Q17 T14Q18 T15Q19 T16Q20 T16	—
2024Oct/Nov 2024	P2	5086 syl5086	Q1T 104minfrared vs ultraviolet: compare frequency and speed in a vacuum Q2T 116mthree characteristics of the image from a converging lens (real/inverted/diminished) Q3T 146mwhy 1 A and 13 A fuses are unsuitable for an 800 W rice cooker on 230 V (5 A chosen) Q4T 3, 4, 55mcontact force on each rear wheel when 60 N on handle lifts the front wheels (equilibrium o Q5T 96mhow sound travels from tuning fork to microphone (compressions and rarefactions in air) Q6T 156mwhich rod could be plastic, from plotting-compass directions at rod ends Q7T 84mhow a thin plastic emergency blanket reduces conduction Q8T 1, 168mprotons and neutrons in caesium-137 from nuclide notation Q9T 2, 4, 610mcompare distances for accelerating section AB and braking section CD using areas under spe Q10 optionalT 3, 6, 710minternal energy, kinetic and potential energy of molecules in regions AB, BC, CD of heatin Q11 optionalT 12, 1310meffect on ammeter and voltmeter readings of adding a resistor in parallel with X	—
2023Oct/Nov 2023	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T4Q4 T4Q5 T3Q6 T5Q7 T3Q8 T6Q9 T8Q10 T7Q11 T9Q12 T9Q13 T11Q14 T11Q15 T9Q16 T12Q17 T13Q18 T13Q19 T14Q20 T15	4 marks R-EFIELD, R-EVAP, R-INERTIA, R-TIR
2023Oct/Nov 2023	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 12mcomplete table of prefixes (kilo, micro), abbreviations and powers of ten Q2T 52mwhy a sumo wrestler squatting low with feet wide apart is hard to push over Q3T 34mpressure under the tracks of a military vehicle from its weight and track area Q4T 3, 46macceleration of the parachutist from the resultant force Q5T 24mspeed of the ISS in km/h from orbit radius and 16 orbits in 24 h Q6T 114mangle of refraction in diamond for 30 degree incidence from sin i / sin r = constant Q7T 8, 148mhow thermal energy passes from hot underfloor heating wires to all parts of the kitchen (c Q8T 103mregion of the e.m. spectrum used for satellite television (microwaves) Q9T 135meffective resistance of 12 ohm and 24 ohm in parallel, in series with 7.0 ohm Q10T 9, 127mtotal charge transferred in a lightning strike from two currents and times (Q = I t) Q11 optionalT 6, 710mdifferences in arrangement, motion and separation of molecules in a solid (AB) and a gas ( Q12 optionalT 3, 610mwhy a tenfold drop in wind speed cuts the kinetic energy of air per second by a factor of Q13 optionalT 9, 1510mwavelength of the 5.0 GHz e.m. wave from a doorbell door unit	2 marks R-STABILITY
2022Oct/Nov 2022	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T4Q4 T3Q5 T5Q6 T5Q7 T3Q8 T6Q9 T6Q10 T7Q11 T9Q12 T11Q13 T10Q14 T9Q15 T12Q16 T13Q17 T13Q18 T14Q19 T13Q20 T15	3 marks R-DEMAG, R-STABILITY, R-TIR
2022Oct/Nov 2022	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 13mcomplete table: quantities for units N/m2 (pressure) and ampere second (charge) Q2T 33mshow the volume of water in a swimming pool of varying depth is 90 m3 Q3T 3, 48mscale vector diagram: resultant of 55 N and 65 N dog pulls on a sled Q4T 55mminimum horizontal force on a trolley handle to lift a suitcase, by moments about the pivo Q5T 102mspeed in vacuum of infra-red and red laser light (same as all e.m. waves) Q6T 83mtemperature of water in a black plastic can after 10 min compared with a black copper can; Q7T 123mchoose the correct electric field diagram for an isolated negative point charge Q8T 118mdescribe the image formed (real, inverted, magnified) Q9T 24mgreatest acceleration of a train from a speed-time graph (steepest gradient) Q10T 12, 136mresistance of the protective resistor in the lamp decoration Q11 optionalT 7, 1410menergy supplied by a 250 V, 6.0 A water heater after the water begins to boil (graph of te Q12 optionalT 6, 10, 1510mhow a current in the coil of a simple d.c. motor model makes the coil turn Q13 optionalT 9, 1510mfrequency of the note from the period read off a current-time graph	13 marks R-EFIELD, R-EVAP, R-VECADD
2021Oct/Nov 2021	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T6Q4 T4Q5 T3Q6 T5Q7 T6Q8 T8Q9 T7Q10 T9Q11 T11Q12 T11Q13 T9Q14 T9Q15 T12Q16 T13Q17 T12Q18 T14Q19 T14Q20 T15	1 marks R-EFIELD
2021Oct/Nov 2021	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 13mclassify acceleration, density, force, speed as scalar or vector Q2T 4, 53mweight of toy kangaroo by moments about pivot P on a hanging mobile rod Q3T 63mgravitational potential energy gained by 450 g squirrel climbing 2.0 m Q4T 2, 4, 66macceleration of a 36 kg shell reaching 870 m/s in 0.013 s Q5T 84mexplain faster cooling of an unlidded can (convection and evaporation loss) Q6T 9, 106mtrue/false statements comparing electromagnetic waves and sound waves Q7T 2, 124mtime for an electric scooter battery to discharge: 24 km at 1.6 m/s Q8T 13, 145meffective resistance of kettle, toaster and coffee maker in parallel on 230 V Q9T 154mreed switch: magnetic strips become induced magnets and repel/separate near a magnet Q10T 34mpressure of a thumb tack point on paper: 18 N over 2.4x10^-3 cm2 Q11T 113mdetermine focal length of a converging lens from the scale ray diagram Q12 optionalT 11, 13, 1410mwhy light leaving straight fibre A is brighter than light from bent fibre B (total interna Q13 optionalT 3, 4, 610mNewton laws: spacecraft decelerates after parachute opens then travels at constant speed ( Q14 optionalT 3, 710mkinetic model: why liquid lead can be poured but solid cannot	5 marks R-TIR
2020Oct/Nov 2020	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T1Q3 T4Q4 T4Q5 T3Q6 T3Q7 T6Q8 T6Q9 T7Q10 T8Q11 T7Q12 T9Q13 T11Q14 T10Q15 T9Q16 T12Q17 T12Q18 T12Q19 T13	2 marks R-EFIELD, R-INERTIA
2020Oct/Nov 2020	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 3, 56mdensity of a 9.0x9.0x27 cm salt block of mass 4.0 kg Q2T 65mspeed of the falling pebble at 20 m height using conservation of energy Q3T 43mthree weights joined at P over pulleys: scale vector diagram to find weight X Q4T 95mfrequency of a note from the pressure-time graph of a loudspeaker Q5T 75mtemperature constant during melting although heated Q6T 113mrefractive index water to glass from angles 62 and 47 degrees Q7T 124maverage charging current: 3300 C in 25 minutes Q8T 122mcharged smoke particles attracted to oppositely charged plates in a chimney Q9T 12, 138mcurrent in a series circuit of 500 ohm resistor and component Y on 9.0 V Q10T 154mbar magnet attracted to switched-off soft-iron core (induced magnetism) Q11 optionalT 8, 1410mwhy exposed metal parts of a hot-water system are earthed Q12 optionalT 2, 3, 410mmass and weight of a golf ball on the Moon compared with Earth (g = 1.60 N/kg) Q13 optionalT 9, 10, 1110mhow sound waves differ from electromagnetic waves (longitudinal, medium, speed)	4 marks R-STABILITY, R-TIR
2019Oct/Nov 2019	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T2Q4 T3Q5 T5Q6 T5Q7 T6Q8 T7Q9 T7Q10 T9Q11 T9Q12 T11Q13 T10Q14 T9Q15 T13Q16 T13Q17 T14Q18 T14Q19 T15Q20 T15	2 marks R-EVAP, R-STABILITY
2019Oct/Nov 2019	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 4, 53mtoy plane B (2.0 N, 24 cm from pivot T): moment about T Q2T 2, 46mcyclist applies force yet speed stays constant: balanced by resistance forces Q3T 66mboy of 70 kg stepping up a 30 cm step 28 times per minute for 5.0 min: total work done Q4T 4, 123mforces (weight, tension, attraction by charged rod) on suspended metal ball near charged r Q5T 36mwater leaves syringe nozzle faster than barrel speed: same volume per second through small Q6T 104mX-rays compared with microwaves: higher frequency, shorter wavelength, same speed in vacuu Q7T 114mglass block n = 1.60, incident angle 40 deg inside block: critical angle calculation, tota Q8T 6, 12, 144mduration of each pulse from 6.0 J energy and power Q9T 12, 135mp.d. across resistor W (900 ohm) from current 8.0 mA Q10T 154mwhich bar may be a magnet from compass needle directions Q11 optionalT 9, 1110mwavelength in water of 40 kHz dolphin sound, speed 1600 m/s Q12 optionalT 3, 710mkinetic theory: arrangement and motion of molecules in ice and in vapour (sublimation) Q13 optionalT 8, 1410mplug wrongly wired (live and neutral/earth mixed up): what is wrong and why dangerous	7 marks R-EFIELD, R-FLOWRATE, R-TIR
2018Oct/Nov 2018	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T4Q3 T4Q4 T4Q5 T3Q6 T3Q7 T3Q8 T6Q9 T6Q10 T8Q11 T9Q12 T11Q13 T11Q14 T12Q15 T13Q16 T12Q17 T13Q18 T13Q19 T14Q20 T15	3 marks R-DEMAG, R-TIR, R-VECADD
2018Oct/Nov 2018	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 63msolar panel to battery: energy transferred electrically Q2T 43mTV camera hung from two wires: scale vector diagram to find the weight Q3T 25mtrain distance-time graph: distance between stations B and E Q4T 116mlens magnification = image distance / object distance from the scale diagram Q5T 93mfrequency of sound from instrument A from excess pressure-time graph Q6T 9, 104mfrequency of red light in glass from speed (km/s) and wavelength Q7T 84mhow immersion heater with copper cover heats all water in hot-water tank (conduction then Q8T 126mcharge through girl's hand from 1.5 mA for 1.2 ms (show 1.8e-6 C) Q9T 72mcooling curves of X, Y, Z: which substances are liquid at 120 C Q10T 2, 4, 65maccelerating force on 530 kg motorcycle from 0 to 26 m/s in 3.25 s Q11T 144mcurrent in 200 W cooker on 240 V mains Q12 optionalT 510mman climbing ramp: how clockwise moment about O changes Q13 optionalT 3, 710mmass of air in cylinder from density and volume Q14 optionalT 12, 1510mcoil of thicker wire: lower resistance, larger current, stronger electromagnet	4 marks R-EFIELD, R-VECADD
2017Oct/Nov 2017	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T2Q2 T2Q3 T4Q4 T3Q5 T5Q6 T5Q7 T3Q8 T6Q9 T7Q10 T7Q11 T9Q12 T11Q13 T10Q14 T9Q15 T9Q16 T12Q17 T12Q18 T13Q19 T14Q20 T15	3 marks R-EFIELD, R-SOUNDSPEED, R-STABILITY
2017Oct/Nov 2017	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 12mprecision of vernier calipers (nearest 0.1 mm) Q2T 117mcharacteristics of image when object is 10 cm from lens (inside focal length) Q3T 37mvolume of gold bar from 25 x 6.0 x 4.3 cm Q4T 104mtrue/false statements on EM waves: uses, frequency, wavelength, transverse, speed Q5T 2, 4, 68mdistance in first 6.0 s from area under speed-time graph Q6T 52mhow a wider base improves stability of glass vase Q7T 138mshow total resistance of series-parallel circuit is 15 kilohm Q8T 123mdraw shape and direction of electric field lines around a negative point charge Q9T 12, 144mcharge through lamp: 2.5 A for 5.0 minutes Q10 optionalT 7, 810mmotion and arrangement of wax molecules as solid wax is heated and melts Q11 optionalT 1, 2, 910mwhy stopwatch time for whistle is inaccurate (reaction time vs short time of flight) Q12 optionalT 6, 14, 1510museful output power of pump raising 3.0e6 kg/min through 520 m	8 marks R-EFIELD, R-SOUNDSPEED, R-STABILITY
2016Oct/Nov 2016	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T4Q4 T3Q5 T5Q6 T3Q7 T6Q8 T6Q9 T8Q10 T7Q11 T9Q12 T11Q13 T11Q14 T9Q15 T12Q16 T13Q17 T13Q18 T14Q19 T15Q20 T15	2 marks R-EVAP, R-TIR
2016Oct/Nov 2016	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 75mwhich of large/small cotton sheet evaporates faster (surface area) Q2T 3, 510mweight of 30 bricks from density and volume, g = 10 N/kg Q3T 2, 4, 67mresultant force on car accelerating uniformly from rest to 27 m/s in 6 s Q4T 43mscale vector diagram: resultant of 50 N at 45 degrees and 20 N weight on thrown rock Q5T 9, 104mshow v = f x wavelength = 3e8 m/s for visible light (0.6 micrometre) Q6T 93mmark a wavelength and a rarefaction on a pressure-distance graph of a sound wave Q7T 122mtwo uncharged metal spheres touched by charged rods then repel: deduce charge on rod Y Q8T 12, 13, 148mcombined resistance of 8 and 2 ohm in series with 6 ohm in parallel Q9T 12, 153mdraw directions of force on sides AB and CD of current-carrying coil between magnet poles Q10 optionalT 4, 610macceleration of falling Stage 1 from speed-time graph: weight vs air resistance, terminal Q11 optionalT 1110mlight incident on face LM at 26.8 degrees vs critical angle: emerges and refracts Q12 optionalT 6, 8, 1410mcircuit breaker: overcurrent fault, solenoid and iron armature switch off the current	18 marks R-EVAP, R-STATIC, R-TIR, R-VECADD
2015Oct/Nov 2015	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T9Q3 T2Q4 T4Q5 T3Q6 T3Q7 T6Q8 T7Q9 T9Q10 T9Q11 T11Q12 T10Q13 T9Q14 T9Q15 T12Q16 T13Q17 T13Q18 T13Q19 T14Q20 T15	1 marks R-EFIELD
2015Oct/Nov 2015	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 84msilver-coated plastic strips trapping air in a coat: reduces energy loss by conduction (ai Q2T 2, 3, 44maverage accelerating force on a 1.2 x 10^5 kg aircraft accelerating at 3.0 m/s2 Q3T 105mregion of the e.m. spectrum for mobile phones, sunbeds, TV remote controls, satellite tele Q4T 38mpressure at the liquid junction X due to liquid A (column weight over area, or rho g h) Q5T 67marrow launch speed from 75% of the stored energy as kinetic energy Q6T 55mwhy a vertical force on the pedal has different turning effects at position A and B (perpe Q7T 114mtwo conditions for total internal reflection in a periscope prism (45 degrees exceeds 42 d Q8T 12, 13, 146mbattery current from effective resistance 0.75 ohm of parallel resistors X, Y, Z on 6.0 V Q9T 122mcharged plastic strip near a metal rod: free electrons repelled to the foil so rod and foi Q10 optionalT 7, 1410mkinetic theory: why a liquid has fixed volume and flows, and why liquid A expands when hea Q11 optionalT 9, 1510malternating voltage on a coil: iron rod always attracted (induced magnetism) but force on Q12 optionalT 2, 410mdescribe the motion of the car from F to K on a velocity-time graph (reverses, slows, stop	6 marks R-LIQPRESS, R-TIR
2014Oct/Nov 2014	P1	old syl5076	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T4Q4 T3Q5 T6Q6 T6Q7 T7Q8 T7Q9 T9Q10 T9Q11 T11Q12 T10Q13 T9Q14 T9Q15 T12Q16 T12Q17 T13Q18 T14Q19 T15Q20 T15	3 marks R-DEMAG, R-EVAP, R-SOUNDSPEED
2014Oct/Nov 2014	P2	old syl5076	Q1T 2, 48mplot speed-time graph of a car: 3.0 m/s2 for 6 s, constant speed 4 s, then braking to rest Q2T 3, 67mmass of water pumped per minute in a canoe-course pumping station from volume and density Q3T 3, 54mforce from the rod on newspaper from pressure 7200 N/m2 and plate area Q4T 113mrefractive index of the prism glass from the critical angle (48 degrees to the face) Q5T 93msketch waveform of a louder guitar note of the same pitch (larger amplitude, same period) Q6T 124mcharge transferred by a lightning flash from current 11 000 A and time 0.00011 s Q7T 13, 146mammeter readings in a circuit with 4000 ohm and 2000 ohm resistors in parallel, A1 = 2.0 m Q8T 12, 143mwhy a lamp fuse is more likely to melt at switch-on than after 5 minutes (low cold resista Q9T 84mhow thermal energy leaves a hot liquid in a lidded metal can (conduction, convection, radi Q10T 43mresultant of 6.0 N and 12.0 N perpendicular forces from a scale diagram Q11 optionalT 1, 9, 1010mfrequency of 10 nm ultraviolet waves using v = f x wavelength Q12 optionalT 6, 1510mwhy a current in a coil makes an iron core attract an iron ball (electromagnet, induced ma Q13 optionalT 7, 1410mname live, neutral and earth wires in a heater circuit and describe the function of the ea	7 marks R-RESTEMP, R-TIR, R-VECADD
2013Oct/Nov 2013	P1	old syl5116	Q1 T2Q2 T4Q3 T4Q4 T3Q5 T3Q6 T6Q7 T6Q8 T8Q9 T7Q10 T9Q11 T11Q12 T11Q13 T9Q14 T12Q15 T13Q16 T13Q17 T14Q18 T14Q19 T15Q20 T15	3 marks R-EFIELD, R-TIR, R-VECADD
2013Oct/Nov 2013	P2	old syl5116	Q1T 2, 3, 46mwhy acceleration decreases between A and B (air resistance grows) Q2T 94mmeaning of a longitudinal wave (sound from instrument) Q3T 3, 5, 68mmass of 1.5 m3 soil of density 2400 kg/m3 in digger bucket Q4T 9, 105mfrequency of UV waves of wavelength 2.0e-8 m using v = f x wavelength Q5T 83mwhy sensor B at bottom of water heated at surface barely warms (no convection, water poor Q6T 2, 4, 6, 12, 1410mcharge through motor in 15 minutes at 6.0 A, with unit Q7T 12, 13, 146menergy dissipated in Y in 10 minutes at 6.0 V (E = VIt) Q8T 153mtwo ways to increase the force on a wire in a magnetic field Q9 optionalT 2, 3, 5, 710mtwo reasons the hydraulic jack lifting force exceeds handle force (lever moments and pisto Q10 optionalT 1110mray inside right-angled prism: angle x, angle y, and total internal reflection at Q Q11 optionalT 12, 13, 1410mread resistance of component X at 30 C and compute current and p.d. across 1.0 kOhm Y in s	12 marks R-THERMISTOR, R-TIR
2012Oct/Nov 2012	P1	old syl5116	Q1 T4Q2 T2Q3 T2Q4 T4Q5 T4Q6 T5Q7 T6Q8 T8Q9 T7Q10 T9Q11 T9Q12 T11Q13 T11Q14 T9Q15 T12Q16 T13Q17 T13Q18 T14Q19 T14Q20 T15	3 marks R-INERTIA, R-TIR, R-VECADD
2012Oct/Nov 2012	P2	old syl5116	Q1T 104mtwo properties of UV and infrared waves (regions A and C of EM spectrum) different from so Q2T 2, 4, 69mwork done by braking force over distance in final 10 minutes Q3T 75marrangement and motion of molecules as liquid cools from 80 to 51 C Q4T 10, 113mchoose correct ray diagram for converging lens giving virtual magnified image Q5T 143mlabel live, neutral and earth terminals in a three-pin plug Q6T 154miron-cored coil becomes magnet and repels permanent magnet (like poles repel) Q7T 37mmass of liquid column from density 0.80 g/cm3 and volume of 0.25 cm2 by 12.4 cm tube Q8T 12, 137mcharge flowing through Y in 5 minutes Q9T 53mweight of metre rule from principle of moments about the 35 cm pivot Q10 optionalT 1, 4, 610mfree-body diagram of pendulum bob held at X by horizontal force Q11 optionalT 6, 7, 8, 1410mhow heat leaves hot liquid via metal tube and blackened plates to air (conduction, radiati Q12 optionalT 910mfrequency and wavelength in faster rock B using v = f x wavelength	1 marks R-DISPERSION
2011Oct/Nov 2011	P1	old syl5116	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T4Q4 T3Q5 T3Q6 T5Q7 T6Q8 T6Q9 T7Q10 T9Q11 T9Q12 T11Q13 T9Q14 T12Q15 T12Q16 T12Q17 T13Q18 T13Q19 T14Q20 T15	2 marks R-EFIELD, R-EVAP
2011Oct/Nov 2011	P2	old syl5116	Q1T 62mgain in gravitational potential energy of 60 kg girl stepping onto a 40 cm bench Q2T 53mwhy the boy cannot lift his left foot without losing balance (centre of gravity, moments) Q3T 2, 47mtotal distance of 14 s race from area under speed-time graph Q4T 6, 9, 126mhow sound from a radio speaker reaches all parts of the room (compressions and rarefaction Q5T 45mscale diagram for total force of two 500 N elastic ropes at 60 degrees on a theme-park rid Q6T 74marrangement of molecules at 50 degC (liquid: close, irregular) Q7T 114mobject 4.0 cm from f = 5.0 cm lens: describe image (virtual, upright, magnified) Q8T 8, 12, 13, 149mhow all the air in an electric oven becomes hot (convection currents) Q9T 33mmass of 60 x 45 x 6 cm concrete slab, density 2.5 g/cm3 Q10T 122mstrain-gauge wire becomes longer and thinner when bent: resistance rises, ammeter reading Q11 optionalT 10, 1110mspeed of EM waves in vacuum and wavelength of a 6000 MHz TV signal Q12 optionalT 3, 5, 610mbrake pedal as a lever: why force on piston differs from foot force, which is greater Q13 optionalT 1410mwhy a 3 A fuse is unsuitable for a 1250 W, 240 V grass cutter	6 marks R-TIR, R-VECADD
2010Oct/Nov 2010	P1	old syl5116	Q1 T1Q2 T2Q3 T4Q4 T4Q5 T4Q6 T5Q7 T6Q8 T6Q9 T8Q10 T7Q11 T9Q12 T11Q13 T10Q14 T9Q15 T12Q16 T12Q17 T13Q18 T14Q19 T14Q20 T15	1 marks R-INERTIA
2010Oct/Nov 2010	P2	old syl5116	Q1T 12mconvert 75 V to kV Q2T 94mtwo sound pressure-time graphs A and B: one way the sounds differ (loudness/amplitude), ex Q3T 27mplot speed-time graph of a car from a described journey (steady, accelerating, steady, dec Q4T 4, 54mposition x of support string on 30 cm rod carrying two toy mobiles, by principle of moment Q5T 7, 85mair molecules in heated silver and dull-black flasks move faster Q6T 125mcharge through a sheep touching an electric fence: 12 mA for 0.1 s Q7T 142mmains plug for toaster wired wrongly (live/neutral swapped, fuse position) Q8T 63mkinetic energy of 1200 kg car at 30 m/s transferred in the brakes Q9T 9, 104mspeed of microwaves from frequency 6000 MHz and wavelength 0.05 m Q10T 36mmass of mercury column in barometer from area 2.5 cm2, h = 76 cm, density 14 g/cm3 Q11T 153mtwo separate changes that reverse the force on a current-carrying wire in a magnetic field Q12 optionalT 12, 1310mcar fuel gauge with float and variable resistor: why ammeter reading falls as fuel level d Q13 optionalT 1110mhow the image changes as object moves towards a converging lens to 1 cm from it Q14 optionalT 410mscale diagram for resultant of two 6000 N tug forces 40 degrees apart on a ship	4 marks R-VECADD

Each paper broken down question by question: Q1 T 1, 2 5m means question 1 drew on topics 1 and 2 and was worth 5 marks. Hover a question for what it actually asked. For Paper 1 (multiple choice) each chip is one question and its topic (Q3 T8 = Q3, topic 8). In Section B, either/or alternatives of one question are listed separately, and choose-a-question items are marked optional.

Each cell is the number of questions on that topic in that year's Paper 1 (20 Physics questions, 1 mark each). Only content a 2026 candidate can still be asked is counted; a cell with an orange underline also lost marks that year to content since removed from the syllabus (hover for the amount) and the bottom row totals them. Darker = heavier.

Topic	’10	’11	’12	’13	’14	’15	’16	’17	’18	’19	’20	’21	’22	’23	’24	’25	’26	Avg	Last 5	Share
1. Physical Quantities, Units and MeasurementMeasurement	1	1	·	·	1	1	1	·	1	1	2	1	1	1	·	1	n/a	0.8	0.8	5%
2. KinematicsMechanics	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	2	·	2	·	1	1	1	·	1	n/a	1.0	0.8	6%
3. Force and PressureMechanics	·	2	·	2	1	2	2	2	3	1	2	1	2	2	2	2	n/a	1.6	1.8	9%
4. DynamicsMechanics	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	·	1	1	1	1	2	1	n/a	1.1	1.2	6%
5. Turning Effects of ForcesMechanics	1	1	1	·	·	·	1	1	·	1	·	1	1	1	1	2	n/a	0.8	1.2	4%
6. EnergyMechanics	2	2	1	2	2	1	2	1	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	n/a	1.7	1.8	9%
7. Kinetic Particle Model of MatterThermal physics	1	·	1	1	1	1	·	2	·	1	2	1	1	·	·	1	n/a	0.8	0.6	5%
8. Thermal ProcessesThermal physics	1	·	1	1	·	·	1	·	1	·	1	1	·	1	1	1	n/a	0.6	0.8	3%
9. General Properties of WavesWaves	2	3	3	2	3	5	2	2	1	3	2	3	2	3	2	1	n/a	2.4	2.2	14%
10. Electromagnetic SpectrumWaves	1	·	·	·	1	1	·	1	·	1	1	·	1	·	1	·	n/a	0.5	0.4	3%
11. LightWaves	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	·	1	1	2	n/a	1.1	1.2	6%
12. Electric Charge and Current of ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	2	2	1	·	2	·	1	1	2	·	2	1	1	·	1	1	n/a	1.1	0.8	6%
13. D.C. CircuitsElectricity and magnetism	1	2	2	2	1	3	2	1	3	2	1	1	3	2	3	2	n/a	1.9	2.2	11%
14. Practical ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	2	1	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	·	2	1	1	1	1	n/a	1.2	1.2	7%
15. Magnetism and ElectromagnetismElectricity and magnetism	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	1	·	2	·	1	·	1	1	1	n/a	1.0	0.8	6%
16. RadioactivityRadioactivity	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	2	1	n/a	0.2	0.6	1%
Live total	19	18	17	17	17	19	18	17	17	18	17	19	17	16	20	20	n/a	17.9	18.4
Removed content (not counted)	1	2	3	3	3	1	2	3	3	2	2	1	3	4	·	·	n/a

2026: Paper 1 not sat yet (n/a).

Each cell is the number of marks on that topic in that year's Paper 2 (out of 65). Section B questions are optional, so each optional question counts by the share of the optional marks a candidate actually answers (worked out per paper so that every Paper 2 adds up to 65). Only content a 2027 candidate can still be asked is counted; a cell with an orange underline also lost marks that year to content since removed from the syllabus (hover for the amount) and the bottom row totals them. Darker = heavier.

Topic	’10	’11	’12	’13	’14	’15	’16	’17	’18	’19	’20	’21	’22	’23	’24	’25	’26	Avg	Last 5	Share
1. Physical Quantities, Units and MeasurementMeasurement	2	·	1.3	·	1.3	·	·	4	·	·	·	3	3	2	1	1	5	1.4	2.4	2%
2. KinematicsMechanics	7	5	4	5.3	5	5.7	2	5.3	7	4	0.7	4	4	4	5	5	5	4.6	4.6	8%
3. Force and PressureMechanics	6	5.7	7	5.3	5	6	7	7	4	7.7	6.7	10	6	6.3	2.5	4	6	6.0	5.0	10%
4. DynamicsMechanics	5	3	4.7	5	3	4	7	2	2	5	6.3	5.7	·	5	4	5	7	4.3	4.2	7%
5. Turning Effects of ForcesMechanics	3	5.7	3	5.7	2	5	3	·	6.7	2	·	2	5	·	2	5	4	3.2	3.2	5%
6. EnergyMechanics	3	5.3	7	3	6.7	7	6.7	5.3	4	8	5	6.3	4	6.7	4	3	3.5	5.2	4.2	9%
7. Kinetic Particle Model of MatterThermal physics	2	4	6.3	1.3	1.3	4.7	·	2.7	4.7	2	5	3.3	2	5.3	2.5	6	1.5	3.2	3.5	5%
8. Thermal ProcessesThermal physics	3	3	2.7	3	4	4	2	4	4	2.7	2.7	4	3	4	4	4	2	3.3	3.4	5%
9. General Properties of WavesWaves	6	2	6.7	6	5.7	4	5	1.3	5	4.7	7.7	3	4	4.7	6	6	4.5	4.8	5.0	8%
10. Electromagnetic SpectrumWaves	2	5.3	5	3	2.7	5	2	4	2	4	2.7	3	2.7	3	4	0.5	1	3.0	2.2	5%
11. LightWaves	6.7	4	1	1.3	·	1	1.3	7	6	3	3	3	8	4	6	4	2.5	3.6	4.9	6%
12. Electric Charge and Current of ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	7.7	6	2	5	4	3	3	2	8.3	3	8	2	3	5	2	4	5	4.3	3.8	7%
13. D.C. CircuitsElectricity and magnetism	4	2	5	3.7	4	3	4	8	·	3	6	5.3	3	5	3	4	2	3.8	3.4	6%
14. Practical ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	2	8.7	4.3	6.3	9.3	4	4.7	3.3	4	5	4	3	1.3	4	6	5	7	4.8	4.7	8%
15. Magnetism and ElectromagnetismElectricity and magnetism	3	·	4	3	4	2.7	2	2	3.3	4	4	4	4.7	4	6	2	4	3.3	4.1	6%
16. RadioactivityRadioactivity	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	7	6.5	5	1.1	3.7	2%
Live total	62.3	59.7	64	57	58	59	49.7	58	61	58	61.7	61.7	53.7	63	65	65	65	60.1	62.3
Removed content (not counted)	2.7	5.3	1	8	7	6	15.3	7	4	7	3.3	3.3	11.3	2	·	·	·

Syllabus 5086 was first examined in 2024; before that the papers were set on 5076 and 5116. Comparing 28 papers from before 2024 against 5 on the new syllabus. Share = percentage of live (non-removed) marks of both papers together. A large positive shift means the new syllabus leans on that topic harder.

Topic	Before 2024	From 2024	Shift	Reading
16. Radioactivity	0.0%	9.1%	+9.1	heavier under the new syllabus
4. Dynamics	6.8%	8.1%	+1.3	broadly unchanged
5. Turning Effects of Forces	4.8%	6.0%	+1.1	broadly unchanged
14. Practical Electricity	7.6%	8.5%	+0.9	broadly unchanged
1. Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement	2.7%	3.4%	+0.7	broadly unchanged
11. Light	5.9%	6.6%	+0.7	broadly unchanged
15. Magnetism and Electromagnetism	5.5%	6.0%	+0.5	broadly unchanged
8. Thermal Processes	5.0%	5.1%	+0.1	broadly unchanged
2. Kinematics	7.3%	6.8%	-0.5	broadly unchanged
7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter	5.3%	4.7%	-0.6	broadly unchanged
9. General Properties of Waves	9.5%	8.3%	-1.2	broadly unchanged
12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	7.2%	5.5%	-1.6	lighter under the new syllabus
13. D.C. Circuits	7.6%	6.0%	-1.7	lighter under the new syllabus
10. Electromagnetic Spectrum	5.0%	2.8%	-2.2	lighter under the new syllabus
6. Energy	9.4%	6.2%	-3.2	lighter under the new syllabus
3. Force and Pressure	10.4%	7.0%	-3.4	lighter under the new syllabus

Content that disappeared

Topics the older papers tested that the 5086 syllabus no longer contains. Each is shown in the history (removed) but left out of the forecast and of the outcome counts. Marks are as a candidate sat them.

Code	Content no longer examined	Marks	Sub-parts	Years seen
R-TIR	Total internal reflection and critical angle, including refractive index n = 1/sin c (no longer in the 2023 syllabus)	31.7	21	11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23
R-VECADD	adding two non-collinear forces to find the resultant (scale drawing / Pythagoras)	23.7	11	10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 18, 22
R-EFIELD	Electric field: definition and field-line patterns around point charges	15	13	11, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23
R-EVAP	Evaporation: energy source, rate factors, and differences from boiling	13.3	11	11, 14, 16, 19, 22, 23
R-STABILITY	Stability of objects: centre of gravity position and base width (stable vs unstable equilibrium)	9	7	17, 19, 20, 22, 23
R-INERTIA	Inertia as the tendency to resist change in motion; mass as the measure of inertia	4	4	10, 12, 20, 23
R-SOUNDSPEED	Relative speed of sound in solids, liquids and gases	4	3	14, 17
R-DEMAG	Methods of magnetising and demagnetising (e.g. a.c. in a coil with decreasing current)	3	3	14, 18, 22
R-LIQPRESS	pressure in liquids, p = rho g h, including U-tube balancing of columns	3	1	15
R-FLOWRATE	Fluid flow: speed of a liquid in a narrower tube (volume flow rate / continuity)	3	1	19
R-THERMISTOR	Thermistor (temperature-dependent resistor) behaviour in circuits	2.7	1	13
R-STATIC	Static electricity: charging by contact/conduction, electron transfer, charged and uncharged conductors	2	1	16
R-DISPERSION	Dispersion: refraction depends on wavelength/colour of light	1	1	12
R-RESTEMP	change of resistance of a metal conductor or filament lamp with temperature	1	1	14

Removed content still sitting in your past papers

Marks per year that test content a 2026 candidate is no longer examined on: 79 sub-parts, 130 printed marks across the archive. If you drill these papers verbatim, this is the time you would waste.

Year	Removed marks	Live marks	Proportion
2026	0	65	0.0%
2025	0	85	0.0%
2024	0	85	0.0%
2023	6	79	7.1%
2022	14.3	70.7	16.9%
2021	4.3	80.7	5.1%
2020	5.3	78.7	6.3%
2019	9	76	10.6%
2018	7	78	8.2%
2017	10	75	11.8%
2016	17.3	67.7	20.4%
2015	7	78	8.2%
2014	10	75	11.8%
2013	11	74	12.9%
2012	4	81	4.7%
2011	7.3	77.7	8.6%
2010	3.7	81.3	4.3%

Where each topic actually earns its marks. A topic that lives in P1 needs fast recognition; one that lives in P2 needs written explanation and working.

Topic	P1	P2	Balance	Dominant question styles
3. Force and Pressure	26	108.2	19% P1	calculation ×66 recall ×10 extended-explanation ×7
9. General Properties of Waves	41	84.2	33% P1	calculation ×40 recall ×23 apply ×13
4. Dynamics	25	94.3	21% P1	calculation ×34 apply ×18 extended-explanation ×15
6. Energy	27	88.5	23% P1	calculation ×58 recall ×19 apply ×5
11. Light	23	88.5	21% P1	apply ×30 calculation ×21 recall ×12
12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	24	86.7	22% P1	calculation ×34 recall ×17 apply ×9
14. Practical Electricity	20	82	20% P1	calculation ×39 extended-explanation ×16 recall ×10
13. D.C. Circuits	31	65	32% P1	calculation ×47 apply ×16 recall ×4
2. Kinematics	16	78	17% P1	calculation ×32 data-interpretation ×13 recall ×6
7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter	18	63	22% P1	extended-explanation ×23 recall ×23 data-interpretation ×9
15. Magnetism and Electromagnetism	19	56.7	25% P1	apply ×23 extended-explanation ×19 recall ×7
5. Turning Effects of Forces	15	60	20% P1	calculation ×26 extended-explanation ×12 apply ×6
8. Thermal Processes	10	56	15% P1	extended-explanation ×22 apply ×14 recall ×8
10. Electromagnetic Spectrum	8	51.8	13% P1	recall ×35 apply ×4 calculation ×3
1. Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement	13	23.7	35% P1	recall ×21 apply ×4 extended-explanation ×2
16. Radioactivity	3	18.5	14% P1	recall ×6 extended-explanation ×4 apply ×3

Every question is sorted into one of three levels of thinking, inferred from what it asks you to do. Marks here are live content only (questions on removed content excluded), so they reflect what the next papers are likely to demand. Recall = state / name / define (recall); Knowledge & understanding = describe / explain / apply a concept (apply, extended-explanation); Handling information = interpret data, calculate, design, solve (data-interpretation, calculation, experimental-design). These approximate the O-Level assessment objectives — AO1 (recall + understanding) and AO2 (handling information). The level is inferred from question style, so treat these as close estimates, not the official mark scheme split.

Recall

17% of live marks
216.8 marks across the archive

Knowledge & understanding

33% of live marks
432 marks across the archive

Handling information

50% of live marks
658.8 marks across the archive

By paper

The multiple-choice paper leans on recall and recognition; the structured paper is where data-handling and problem-solving marks live.

Level of thinking	P1 marks	% of P1	P2 marks	% of P2	Total	Share of all marks
Recall	79	28%	137.8	13%	216.8	17%
Knowledge & understanding	75	26%	357	35%	432	33%
Handling information	132	46%	526.8	52%	658.8	50%
All questions	286	100%	1021.7	100%	1307.7

By year

How the balance of thinking has shifted over time — the bar shows each year's mix as a proportion, so you can see trends even though papers differ slightly in size. Marks are live content only, both papers combined.

Year	Recall	Know & und.	Handling	Total
2026	16	18.5	30.5	65
2025	18.5	31	35.5	85
2024	17	36.5	31.5	85
2023	10	27	42	79
2022	12.7	27.3	30.7	70.7
2021	19	22.3	39.3	80.7
2020	12	25.7	41	78.7
2019	10	27	39	76
2018	10.3	23.7	44	78
2017	10	24.3	40.7	75
2016	6.7	25.7	35.3	67.7
2015	9	24.7	44.3	78
2014	13.3	23	38.7	75
2013	14.3	21.3	38.3	74
2012	13	25.7	42.3	81
2011	14	22	41.7	77.7
2010	11	26.3	44	81.3

Colours: Recall Knowledge & understanding Handling information

By topic

Which chapters are recall-heavy versus which demand data-handling and problem-solving. Hover a bar for the marks in each level.

Topic	Recall	Know & und.	Handling
3. Force and Pressure	11.3	18.3	98.5
9. General Properties of Waves	23	34.2	64
6. Energy	18	10	87.5
14. Practical Electricity	12	34.2	55.8
13. D.C. Circuits	3.7	21.2	71.2
2. Kinematics	6	13.3	74.7
4. Dynamics	2	46.3	43.3
12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	8	18.7	63.3
11. Light	13	36.2	29.7
15. Magnetism and Electromagnetism	7	61	4.7
7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter	16.5	42.3	8.8
5. Turning Effects of Forces	5	20.7	40.3
8. Thermal Processes	9.3	54.3	2.3
10. Electromagnetic Spectrum	48.7	4.5	6.7
1. Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement	26.3	7.3	3
16. Radioactivity	7	9.5	5

Colours: Recall Knowledge & understanding Handling information

Paper 1 · multiple choice · 2026 paper. Forecast of how many questions each topic is worth out of 20: the recency-weighted average over all 16 sittings (half-life 6 years; 5086-syllabus papers ×1.6), counting only content a 2026 candidate can still be asked. The means are scaled up ×1.09 so they add to the full 20: older papers spent some marks on content since removed from the syllabus, and a 2026 paper will have none. Heaviest three: General Properties of Waves (2.4), D.C. Circuits (2.3), Force and Pressure (2.0).

#	Topic	2026 forecast (questions)	Recent range	Last 8 sittings ’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25	Trend	Reliability
1	9. General Properties of WavesWaves	2.4	1–3	13232321	▬	moderate
2	13. D.C. CircuitsElectricity and magnetism	2.3	1–3	32113232	▬	moderate
3	3. Force and PressureMechanics	2.0	1–3	31212222	▬	steady
4	6. EnergyMechanics	1.9	1–2	21222122	▬	steady
5	4. DynamicsMechanics	1.3	0–2	2·111121	▬	moderate
6	11. LightWaves	1.3	0–2	1112·112	▬	moderate
7	14. Practical ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	1.2	0–2	12·21111	▬	moderate
8	12. Electric Charge and Current of ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	1.1	0–2	2·211·11	▬	volatile
9	5. Turning Effects of ForcesMechanics	1.1	0–2	·1·11112	▲	moderate
10	15. Magnetism and ElectromagnetismElectricity and magnetism	1.0	0–2	·2·1·111	▬	volatile
11	2. KinematicsMechanics	0.9	0–2	·2·111·1	▬	volatile
12	1. Physical Quantities, Units and MeasurementMeasurement	0.9	0–2	112111·1	▬	moderate
13	7. Kinetic Particle Model of MatterThermal physics	0.8	0–2	·1211··1	▬	volatile
14	8. Thermal ProcessesThermal physics	0.8	0–1	1·11·111	▬	moderate
15	16. RadioactivityRadioactivity	0.5	0–2	······21	▲	volatile
16	10. Electromagnetic SpectrumWaves	0.5	0–1	·11·1·1·	▬	volatile

Reliability: steady appeared in every recent sitting with a small spread; volatile swings a lot or skips years — treat its forecast as a guess. Trend ▲/▼ means a clear drift over the recent sittings (hover for the rate); ▬ means no clear direction.

The outcomes this paper keeps returning to

Learning outcomes ranked by how often (and how recently) they have been asked in Paper 1. These are the outcomes most likely to appear again.

LO	Topic	Learning outcome	Last 5 / all	Last seen	A recent example
9(d)	9. General Properties of Waves	recall and apply the relationship speed of wave = frequency × wavelength to new situations or to solve related problems	5 / 14	2025	2025 Q11 — wavelength of 1.0 x 10^10 Hz EM pulses from a space probe, using v = f lambda
3(e)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship weight = mass × gravitational field strength to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 11	2025	2025 Q8 — maximum number of 3.0 kg concrete slabs in a pile given pressure limit 4000 Pa
3(g)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship density = mass / volume to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 9	2025	2025 Q3 — number of paper clips from density, mass and measuring-cylinder volume readings
13(f)	13. D.C. Circuits	recall and apply the formulae for the effective resistance of a number of resistors in series and in parallel to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 12	2025	2025 Q17 — effective resistance R and p.d. V of a parallel arrangement in a circuit with 12 V battery, 6 V and 3 A readings
5(d)	5. Turning Effects of Forces	apply the principle of moments to new situations or to solve related problems	5 / 10	2025	2025 Q7 — distance X for a beam balanced on a pivot with three forces (principle of moments)
4(a)	4. Dynamics	apply Newton's Laws to:; (i) describe the effect of balanced and unbalanced forces on a body; (ii) describe the ways in which a force may change the motion of a body…	2 / 10	2025	2025 Q4 — free body diagram for an aircraft at constant velocity: direction of lift, weight, thrust, air resistance
3(i)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship pressure = force / area to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 8	2025	2025 Q8 — maximum number of 3.0 kg concrete slabs in a pile given pressure limit 4000 Pa
9(c)	9. General Properties of Waves	define and use the terms speed, frequency, wavelength, period and amplitude including graphical representations	2 / 15	2023	2023 Q11 — which wave quantity must change when the frequency increases (period)
6(b)	6. Energy	recall and apply the relationships for kinetic energy (Ek = ½ m v2) and gravitational potential energy near the Earth's surface (Ep = m g h) to new situations or to…	4 / 9	2025	2025 Q5 — increase in kinetic energy and resultant force on a 1200 kg car accelerating uniformly 5 to 15 m/s
13(e)	13. D.C. Circuits	state that the potential difference across the separate branches of a parallel circuit is the same and apply the principle to new situations or to solve related problems	2 / 8	2025	2025 Q17 — effective resistance R and p.d. V of a parallel arrangement in a circuit with 12 V battery, 6 V and 3 A readings
13(g)	13. D.C. Circuits	recall and apply the relevant relationships, including R = V / I and those for current, potential differences and resistors in series and in parallel circuits, in…	3 / 10	2025	2025 Q17 — effective resistance R and p.d. V of a parallel arrangement in a circuit with 12 V battery, 6 V and 3 A readings
12(i)	12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	apply the relationship R = V / I to new situations or to solve related problems	3 / 8	2025	2025 Q18 — resistance and energy transferred by a 4600 W heater on 230 V for 600 s
4(c)	4. Dynamics	recall and apply the relationship resultant force = mass × acceleration to new situations or to solve related problems	3 / 9	2025	2025 Q5 — increase in kinetic energy and resultant force on a 1200 kg car accelerating uniformly 5 to 15 m/s
2(c)	2. Kinematics	state what is meant by uniform acceleration and calculate the value of acceleration using change in velocity / time taken	3 / 7	2025	2025 Q5 — increase in kinetic energy and resultant force on a 1200 kg car accelerating uniformly 5 to 15 m/s
6(d)	6. Energy	recall and apply the relationship work done = force × distance moved in the direction of the force to new situations or to solve related problems	3 / 9	2024	2024 Q7 — work done braking a 2400 kg car from 30 m/s to rest
13(c)	13. D.C. Circuits	state that the sum of the potential differences in a series circuit is equal to the potential difference across the whole circuit and apply the principle to new…	2 / 6	2024	2024 Q15 — current and voltage statements for a battery, lamp and resistor in series

Asked before, then went quiet

Outcomes asked at least three times in this paper but absent from the last four of its 16 sittings. Examiners rotate their coverage, so these are worth a revisit — but a long gap is a prompt to revise, not a promise it is due.

LO	Topic	Learning outcome	Asked	Last seen
11(g)	11. Light	define the focal length for a converging lens	3×	2014 (11 sittings ago)
7(e)	7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter	describe melting/solidification and boiling/condensation as processes of energy transfer without a change in temperature	6×	2021 (4 sittings ago)
9(h)	9. General Properties of Waves	relate loudness of a sound wave to its amplitude and pitch to its frequency	4×	2020 (5 sittings ago)
14(c)	14. Practical Electricity	calculate the cost of using electrical appliances where the energy unit is the kW h	5×	2021 (4 sittings ago)
3(f)	3. Force and Pressure	distinguish between mass and weight	4×	2020 (5 sittings ago)
2(h)	2. Kinematics	calculate the area under a speed-time graph to determine the distance travelled for motion in one direction with uniform speed or uniform acceleration	3×	2019 (6 sittings ago)
12(e)	12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	recall and apply the relationship charge = current × time to new situations or to solve related problems	3×	2020 (5 sittings ago)

Paper 2 · structured · 2027 paper. Forecast of how many marks each topic is worth out of 65: the recency-weighted average over all 17 sittings (half-life 6 years; 5086-syllabus papers ×1.6), counting only content a 2027 candidate can still be asked. The means are scaled up ×1.05 so they add to the full 65: older papers spent some marks on content since removed from the syllabus, and a 2027 paper will have none. Heaviest three: Force and Pressure (5.9), Practical Electricity (5.3), General Properties of Waves (5.2).

#	Topic	2027 forecast (marks)	Recent range	Last 8 sittings ’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26	Trend	Reliability
1	3. Force and PressureMechanics	5.9	2.5–10	7.76.71066.32.546	▼	steady
2	14. Practical ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	5.3	1.3–7	5431.34657	▬	moderate
3	9. General Properties of WavesWaves	5.2	3–7.7	4.77.7344.7664.5	▬	steady
4	6. EnergyMechanics	4.9	3–8	856.346.7433.5	▼	steady
5	4. DynamicsMechanics	4.9	0–7	56.35.7·5457	▬	moderate
6	2. KinematicsMechanics	4.8	0.7–5	40.7444555	▬	steady
7	12. Electric Charge and Current of ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	4.3	2–8	38235245	▬	moderate
8	11. LightWaves	4.2	2.5–8	33384642.5	▬	moderate
9	15. Magnetism and ElectromagnetismElectricity and magnetism	3.9	2–6	4444.74624	▬	steady
10	13. D.C. CircuitsElectricity and magnetism	3.8	2–6	365.335342	▬	steady
11	7. Kinetic Particle Model of MatterThermal physics	3.5	1.5–6	253.325.32.561.5	▬	moderate
12	8. Thermal ProcessesThermal physics	3.5	2–4	2.72.7434442	▬	steady
13	5. Turning Effects of ForcesMechanics	3.3	0–5	2·25·254	▬	volatile
14	16. RadioactivityRadioactivity	2.9	0–7	·····76.55	▲	volatile
15	10. Electromagnetic SpectrumWaves	2.6	0.5–4	42.732.7340.51	▬	moderate
16	1. Physical Quantities, Units and MeasurementMeasurement	2.0	0–5	··332115	▬	volatile

The outcomes this paper keeps returning to

Learning outcomes ranked by how often (and how recently) they have been asked in Paper 2. These are the outcomes most likely to appear again.

LO	Topic	Learning outcome	Last 5 / all	Last seen	A recent example
14(b)	14. Practical Electricity	recall and apply the relationships P = V I and E = V I t to new situations or to solve related problems	5 / 33	2026	2026 Q6(c) — electrical energy in 11 minutes with motor and both heating elements on (1886 W)
7(e)	7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter	describe melting/solidification and boiling/condensation as processes of energy transfer without a change in temperature	5 / 22	2026	2026 Q10(d)(i) — kinetic energy of wax particles as wax melts at constant temperature (no change)
4(a)	4. Dynamics	apply Newton's Laws to:; (i) describe the effect of balanced and unbalanced forces on a body; (ii) describe the ways in which a force may change the motion of a body…	4 / 26	2026	2026 Q3(c) — draw two equal and opposite forces to scale for constant velocity at t2
6(b)	6. Energy	recall and apply the relationships for kinetic energy (Ek = ½ m v2) and gravitational potential energy near the Earth's surface (Ep = m g h) to new situations or to…	5 / 22	2026	2026 Q9(d)(iv) — effect of extra passenger mass on thinking distance (none) and braking distance (increases)
8(e)	8. Thermal Processes	apply the concepts of conduction, convection and radiation in everyday examples.	5 / 17	2026	2026 Q10(c) — two reasons energy reaching the water is less than energy released by the wax (losses to surroundings, absorbed by beake
3(g)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship density = mass / volume to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 25	2025	2025 Q4(c) — density of a porcelain tile from mass 7.7 kg and dimensions, in kg/m3
13(g)	13. D.C. Circuits	recall and apply the relevant relationships, including R = V / I and those for current, potential differences and resistors in series and in parallel circuits, in…	4 / 19	2026	2026 Q4(b)(ii) — new ammeter reading when wire length is halved (resistance halves, series circuit)
10(a)	10. Electromagnetic Spectrum	state that all electromagnetic waves are transverse waves that travel with the same speed in vacuum	5 / 22	2026	2026 Q11(c) — three differences between sound waves and electromagnetic waves (longitudinal, needs medium, much slower)
6(c)	6. Energy	state the principle of the conservation of energy and apply the principle to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 20	2026	2026 Q10(c) — two reasons energy reaching the water is less than energy released by the wax (losses to surroundings, absorbed by beake
3(i)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship pressure = force / area to new situations or to solve related problems	3 / 23	2026	2026 Q5(d)(ii) — weight of the hydraulic load from oil pressure and load cross-section area from its diameter
2(b)	2. Kinematics	calculate average speed = distance travelled / time taken	3 / 15	2026	2026 Q9(d)(iii) — total time from seeing hazard to stopping: thinking time plus braking time (v/a)
9(d)	9. General Properties of Waves	recall and apply the relationship speed of wave = frequency × wavelength to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 20	2026	2026 Q2(c) — speed of water waves from frequency and wavelength
10(c)	10. Electromagnetic Spectrum	state examples of typical uses of the following regions of the electromagnetic spectrum:; (i) radio waves (e.g. radio and television communication, astronomy and RFID…	5 / 17	2026	2026 Q11(b)(i) — pick letter for microwaves (mobile phones) in the EM spectrum table in order of wavelength
6(a)	6. Energy	show an understanding that there are energy stores, e.g. kinetic, potential (gravitational, chemical, elastic), nuclear and internal, and that energy can be transferred…	4 / 14	2026	2026 Q10(a)(ii) — energy per gram of wax burnt that reaches the water (mass loss 1.8 g)
5(d)	5. Turning Effects of Forces	apply the principle of moments to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 18	2026	2026 Q5(b) — show piston force is 2000 N by taking moments about the pivot of the arm (100 N, 25 N weight, piston)
9(c)	9. General Properties of Waves	define and use the terms speed, frequency, wavelength, period and amplitude including graphical representations	4 / 14	2026	2026 Q2(b) — period of ripple-tank waves from frequency 4.0 Hz

Asked before, then went quiet

Outcomes asked at least three times in this paper but absent from the last four of its 17 sittings. Examiners rotate their coverage, so these are worth a revisit — but a long gap is a prompt to revise, not a promise it is due.

LO	Topic	Learning outcome	Asked	Last seen
6(d)	6. Energy	recall and apply the relationship work done = force × distance moved in the direction of the force to new situations or to solve related problems	10×	2021 (5 sittings ago)
4(d)	4. Dynamics	explain the effects of friction on the motion of a body	6×	2020 (6 sittings ago)
5(a)	5. Turning Effects of Forces	describe the moment of a force about a pivot in terms of its turning effect and relate this to everyday examples	4×	2022 (4 sittings ago)
11(f)	11. Light	describe the action of a thin converging lens on a beam of light	4×	2022 (4 sittings ago)

What this is — and is not

A frequency model

The forecast says where the marks have been, weighted towards recent papers and the 5086 syllabus. It cannot see the next paper; treat it as a way to decide where to spend revision time, not as a leak.

Paper 1 and the structured paper differ

A topic can be a certainty in multiple choice and absent from long answers, or the reverse. That is why each paper is forecast on its own rather than blended.

Thin new-syllabus evidence

Only a few sittings exist under the 5086 syllabus (first examined 2024), so the boost for those papers matters but cannot be proven. Re-run this report when more 5086 papers are available.

Printable priority order. Work top-down: topics are sorted by their forecast share of the 85 marks across Paper 1 and Paper 2 at their next sittings (Paper 1 2026, Paper 2 2027) (see the 2027 prediction tab for each paper on its own), and within each topic the cold outcomes are the ones most likely to catch you out.

1. Force and Pressure — about 8 of 85 marks · ≈2.0 P1 questions + ≈5.9 P2 marks

Mechanics · 9 of 9 outcomes ever tested

Do not skip:

3(c) state that a gravitational field is a region in which a mass experiences a force due to gravitational attraction (last seen 2021 — 5 years cold)
3(d) define gravitational field strength, g, as gravitational force per unit mass placed at that point (last seen 2021 — 5 years cold)
3(b) state that mass is a measure of the amount of matter in a body (only 2 appearances ever)

2. General Properties of Waves — about 8 of 85 marks · ≈2.4 P1 questions + ≈5.2 P2 marks

Waves · 9 of 9 outcomes ever tested

3. Energy — about 7 of 85 marks · ≈1.9 P1 questions + ≈4.9 P2 marks

Mechanics · 5 of 5 outcomes ever tested

4. Practical Electricity — about 6 of 85 marks · ≈1.2 P1 questions + ≈5.3 P2 marks

Electricity and magnetism · 8 of 9 outcomes ever tested

Do not skip:

14(a) describe the use of the heating effect of electricity in appliances such as electric kettles, ovens and heaters (never tested)
14(d) state the hazards of using electricity in the following situations:; (i) damaged insulation; (ii) overheating of cables; (iii) damp conditions (only 2 appearances ever)

5. Dynamics — about 6 of 85 marks · ≈1.3 P1 questions + ≈4.9 P2 marks

Mechanics · 4 of 4 outcomes ever tested

6. D.C. Circuits — about 6 of 85 marks · ≈2.3 P1 questions + ≈3.8 P2 marks

Electricity and magnetism · 7 of 7 outcomes ever tested

7. Kinematics — about 6 of 85 marks · ≈0.9 P1 questions + ≈4.8 P2 marks

Mechanics · 9 of 9 outcomes ever tested

8. Light — about 5 of 85 marks · ≈1.3 P1 questions + ≈4.2 P2 marks

Waves · 8 of 8 outcomes ever tested

9. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity — about 5 of 85 marks · ≈1.1 P1 questions + ≈4.3 P2 marks

Electricity and magnetism · 10 of 10 outcomes ever tested

Do not skip:

12(f) state that the electromotive force (e.m.f.) of an electrical source of energy is measured in volts (last seen 2021 — 5 years cold)
12(c) state that current is the rate of flow of charge and that it is measured in amperes (only 1 appearance ever)

10. Magnetism and Electromagnetism — about 5 of 85 marks · ≈1.0 P1 questions + ≈3.9 P2 marks

Electricity and magnetism · 9 of 9 outcomes ever tested

Do not skip:

15(e) draw the magnetic field pattern around a bar magnet and between the poles of two bar magnets. (last seen 2019 — 7 years cold)

11. Turning Effects of Forces — about 4 of 85 marks · ≈1.1 P1 questions + ≈3.3 P2 marks

Mechanics · 5 of 5 outcomes ever tested

Do not skip:

5(c) state the principle of moments for a body in equilibrium (only 2 appearances ever)

12. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter — about 4 of 85 marks · ≈0.8 P1 questions + ≈3.5 P2 marks

Thermal physics · 5 of 5 outcomes ever tested

13. Thermal Processes — about 4 of 85 marks · ≈0.8 P1 questions + ≈3.5 P2 marks

Thermal physics · 5 of 5 outcomes ever tested

14. Radioactivity — about 3 of 85 marks · ≈0.5 P1 questions + ≈2.9 P2 marks

Radioactivity · 7 of 8 outcomes ever tested

Do not skip:

16(f) show an understanding of background radiation (never tested)
16(b) use the terms proton (atomic) number Z, nucleon (mass) number A and isotope (only 2 appearances ever)

15. Electromagnetic Spectrum — about 3 of 85 marks · ≈0.5 P1 questions + ≈2.6 P2 marks

Waves · 4 of 4 outcomes ever tested

Do not skip:

10(d) describe how over-exposure to electromagnetic waves can have hazardous effects (e.g. heating and ionising effects of radiation) on living cells and… (only 1 appearance ever)

16. Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement — about 3 of 85 marks · ≈0.9 P1 questions + ≈2.0 P2 marks

Measurement · 6 of 6 outcomes ever tested

Do not skip:

1(a) show an understanding that physical quantities typically consist of a numerical magnitude and a unit (only 2 appearances ever)

#	Topic	2026 forecast (questions)	Recent range	Last 8 sittings ’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25	Trend	Reliability
1	9. General Properties of WavesWaves	2.4	1–3	13232321	▬	moderate
2	13. D.C. CircuitsElectricity and magnetism	2.3	1–3	32113232	▬	moderate
3	3. Force and PressureMechanics	2.0	1–3	31212222	▬	steady
4	6. EnergyMechanics	1.9	1–2	21222122	▬	steady
5	4. DynamicsMechanics	1.3	0–2	2·111121	▬	moderate
6	11. LightWaves	1.3	0–2	1112·112	▬	moderate
7	14. Practical ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	1.2	0–2	12·21111	▬	moderate
8	12. Electric Charge and Current of ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	1.1	0–2	2·211·11	▬	volatile
9	5. Turning Effects of ForcesMechanics	1.1	0–2	·1·11112	▲	moderate
10	15. Magnetism and ElectromagnetismElectricity and magnetism	1.0	0–2	·2·1·111	▬	volatile
11	2. KinematicsMechanics	0.9	0–2	·2·111·1	▬	volatile
12	1. Physical Quantities, Units and MeasurementMeasurement	0.9	0–2	112111·1	▬	moderate
13	7. Kinetic Particle Model of MatterThermal physics	0.8	0–2	·1211··1	▬	volatile
14	8. Thermal ProcessesThermal physics	0.8	0–1	1·11·111	▬	moderate
15	16. RadioactivityRadioactivity	0.5	0–2	······21	▲	volatile
16	10. Electromagnetic SpectrumWaves	0.5	0–1	·11·1·1·	▬	volatile

The outcomes this paper keeps returning to

Learning outcomes ranked by how often (and how recently) they have been asked in Paper 1. These are the outcomes most likely to appear again.

LO	Topic	Learning outcome	Last 5 / all	Last seen	A recent example
9(d)	9. General Properties of Waves	recall and apply the relationship speed of wave = frequency × wavelength to new situations or to solve related problems	5 / 14	2025	2025 Q11 — wavelength of 1.0 x 10^10 Hz EM pulses from a space probe, using v = f lambda
3(e)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship weight = mass × gravitational field strength to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 11	2025	2025 Q8 — maximum number of 3.0 kg concrete slabs in a pile given pressure limit 4000 Pa
3(g)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship density = mass / volume to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 9	2025	2025 Q3 — number of paper clips from density, mass and measuring-cylinder volume readings
13(f)	13. D.C. Circuits	recall and apply the formulae for the effective resistance of a number of resistors in series and in parallel to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 12	2025	2025 Q17 — effective resistance R and p.d. V of a parallel arrangement in a circuit with 12 V battery, 6 V and 3 A readings
5(d)	5. Turning Effects of Forces	apply the principle of moments to new situations or to solve related problems	5 / 10	2025	2025 Q7 — distance X for a beam balanced on a pivot with three forces (principle of moments)
4(a)	4. Dynamics	apply Newton's Laws to:; (i) describe the effect of balanced and unbalanced forces on a body; (ii) describe the ways in which a force may change the motion of a body…	2 / 10	2025	2025 Q4 — free body diagram for an aircraft at constant velocity: direction of lift, weight, thrust, air resistance
3(i)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship pressure = force / area to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 8	2025	2025 Q8 — maximum number of 3.0 kg concrete slabs in a pile given pressure limit 4000 Pa
9(c)	9. General Properties of Waves	define and use the terms speed, frequency, wavelength, period and amplitude including graphical representations	2 / 15	2023	2023 Q11 — which wave quantity must change when the frequency increases (period)
6(b)	6. Energy	recall and apply the relationships for kinetic energy (Ek = ½ m v2) and gravitational potential energy near the Earth's surface (Ep = m g h) to new situations or to…	4 / 9	2025	2025 Q5 — increase in kinetic energy and resultant force on a 1200 kg car accelerating uniformly 5 to 15 m/s
13(e)	13. D.C. Circuits	state that the potential difference across the separate branches of a parallel circuit is the same and apply the principle to new situations or to solve related problems	2 / 8	2025	2025 Q17 — effective resistance R and p.d. V of a parallel arrangement in a circuit with 12 V battery, 6 V and 3 A readings
13(g)	13. D.C. Circuits	recall and apply the relevant relationships, including R = V / I and those for current, potential differences and resistors in series and in parallel circuits, in…	3 / 10	2025	2025 Q17 — effective resistance R and p.d. V of a parallel arrangement in a circuit with 12 V battery, 6 V and 3 A readings
12(i)	12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	apply the relationship R = V / I to new situations or to solve related problems	3 / 8	2025	2025 Q18 — resistance and energy transferred by a 4600 W heater on 230 V for 600 s
4(c)	4. Dynamics	recall and apply the relationship resultant force = mass × acceleration to new situations or to solve related problems	3 / 9	2025	2025 Q5 — increase in kinetic energy and resultant force on a 1200 kg car accelerating uniformly 5 to 15 m/s
2(c)	2. Kinematics	state what is meant by uniform acceleration and calculate the value of acceleration using change in velocity / time taken	3 / 7	2025	2025 Q5 — increase in kinetic energy and resultant force on a 1200 kg car accelerating uniformly 5 to 15 m/s
6(d)	6. Energy	recall and apply the relationship work done = force × distance moved in the direction of the force to new situations or to solve related problems	3 / 9	2024	2024 Q7 — work done braking a 2400 kg car from 30 m/s to rest
13(c)	13. D.C. Circuits	state that the sum of the potential differences in a series circuit is equal to the potential difference across the whole circuit and apply the principle to new…	2 / 6	2024	2024 Q15 — current and voltage statements for a battery, lamp and resistor in series

Asked before, then went quiet

LO	Topic	Learning outcome	Asked	Last seen
11(g)	11. Light	define the focal length for a converging lens	3×	2014 (11 sittings ago)
7(e)	7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter	describe melting/solidification and boiling/condensation as processes of energy transfer without a change in temperature	6×	2021 (4 sittings ago)
9(h)	9. General Properties of Waves	relate loudness of a sound wave to its amplitude and pitch to its frequency	4×	2020 (5 sittings ago)
14(c)	14. Practical Electricity	calculate the cost of using electrical appliances where the energy unit is the kW h	5×	2021 (4 sittings ago)
3(f)	3. Force and Pressure	distinguish between mass and weight	4×	2020 (5 sittings ago)
2(h)	2. Kinematics	calculate the area under a speed-time graph to determine the distance travelled for motion in one direction with uniform speed or uniform acceleration	3×	2019 (6 sittings ago)
12(e)	12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	recall and apply the relationship charge = current × time to new situations or to solve related problems	3×	2020 (5 sittings ago)

Paper 2 · structured · 2026 paper. Forecast of how many marks each topic is worth out of 65: the recency-weighted average over all 16 sittings (half-life 6 years; 5086-syllabus papers ×1.6), counting only content a 2026 candidate can still be asked. The means are scaled up ×1.07 so they add to the full 65: older papers spent some marks on content since removed from the syllabus, and a 2026 paper will have none. Heaviest three: Force and Pressure (5.8), General Properties of Waves (5.4), Energy (5.3).

#	Topic	2026 forecast (marks)	Recent range	Last 8 sittings ’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25	Trend	Reliability
1	3. Force and PressureMechanics	5.8	2.5–10	2.77.76.71066.32.54	▬	moderate
2	9. General Properties of WavesWaves	5.4	3–7.7	54.77.7344.766	▬	steady
3	6. EnergyMechanics	5.3	3–8	4856.346.743	▬	steady
4	14. Practical ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	4.9	1.3–6	45431.3465	▬	steady
5	2. KinematicsMechanics	4.8	0.7–7	740.744455	▬	moderate
6	11. LightWaves	4.5	3–8	63338464	▬	moderate
7	4. DynamicsMechanics	4.5	0–6.3	256.35.7·545	▬	moderate
8	13. D.C. CircuitsElectricity and magnetism	4.2	0–6	·365.33534	▬	moderate
9	12. Electric Charge and Current of ElectricityElectricity and magnetism	4.2	2–8.3	8.33823524	▼	moderate
10	7. Kinetic Particle Model of MatterThermal physics	3.9	2–6	4.7253.325.32.56	▬	moderate
11	15. Magnetism and ElectromagnetismElectricity and magnetism	3.9	2–6	3.34444.7462	▬	steady
12	8. Thermal ProcessesThermal physics	3.8	2.7–4	42.72.743444	▬	steady
13	5. Turning Effects of ForcesMechanics	3.1	0–6.7	6.72·25·25	▬	volatile
14	10. Electromagnetic SpectrumWaves	3.0	0.5–4	242.732.7340.5	▬	moderate
15	16. RadioactivityRadioactivity	2.5	0–7	······76.5	▲	volatile
16	1. Physical Quantities, Units and MeasurementMeasurement	1.4	0–3	···33211	▬	volatile

The outcomes this paper keeps returning to

Learning outcomes ranked by how often (and how recently) they have been asked in Paper 2. These are the outcomes most likely to appear again.

LO	Topic	Learning outcome	Last 5 / all	Last seen	A recent example
14(b)	14. Practical Electricity	recall and apply the relationships P = V I and E = V I t to new situations or to solve related problems	5 / 31	2025	2025 Q12(c) — choose a fuse for a 3.2 kW electric oven using I = P / V
7(e)	7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter	describe melting/solidification and boiling/condensation as processes of energy transfer without a change in temperature	5 / 21	2025	2025 Q10(d) — sketch cooling curve of lauric acid in a copper beaker versus polystyrene (faster cooling, same plateau)
3(g)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship density = mass / volume to new situations or to solve related problems	5 / 25	2025	2025 Q4(c) — density of a porcelain tile from mass 7.7 kg and dimensions, in kg/m3
4(a)	4. Dynamics	apply Newton's Laws to:; (i) describe the effect of balanced and unbalanced forces on a body; (ii) describe the ways in which a force may change the motion of a body…	4 / 24	2025	2025 Q8(a) — use Newton laws to explain reduced balance reading means downward magnetic force on current-carrying wire
6(b)	6. Energy	recall and apply the relationships for kinetic energy (Ek = ½ m v2) and gravitational potential energy near the Earth's surface (Ep = m g h) to new situations or to…	5 / 20	2025	2025 Q6(a)(ii) — minimum take-off speed of the cat from energy conservation
10(a)	10. Electromagnetic Spectrum	state that all electromagnetic waves are transverse waves that travel with the same speed in vacuum	5 / 21	2025	2025 Q11(b)(iii) — show frequency and wavelength pair for gamma rays is impossible (f x lambda is not 3.0 x 10^8 m/s)
9(d)	9. General Properties of Waves	recall and apply the relationship speed of wave = frequency × wavelength to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 19	2025	2025 Q11(b)(iii) — show frequency and wavelength pair for gamma rays is impossible (f x lambda is not 3.0 x 10^8 m/s)
8(e)	8. Thermal Processes	apply the concepts of conduction, convection and radiation in everyday examples.	5 / 15	2025	2025 Q10(d) — sketch cooling curve of lauric acid in a copper beaker versus polystyrene (faster cooling, same plateau)
10(c)	10. Electromagnetic Spectrum	state examples of typical uses of the following regions of the electromagnetic spectrum:; (i) radio waves (e.g. radio and television communication, astronomy and RFID…	4 / 16	2025	2025 Q11(a)(i) — region of EM spectrum (X-rays) used to image a broken finger
13(g)	13. D.C. Circuits	recall and apply the relevant relationships, including R = V / I and those for current, potential differences and resistors in series and in parallel circuits, in…	4 / 17	2025	2025 Q5(b) — complete table of ammeter and voltmeter readings for switch X and Y combinations (short circuit when both closed)
12(i)	12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	apply the relationship R = V / I to new situations or to solve related problems	2 / 23	2024	2024 Q11(b)(ii) — resistance of resistor Y using e.m.f. of battery, LED p.d. and series circuit
5(d)	5. Turning Effects of Forces	apply the principle of moments to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 16	2025	2025 Q7(b)(ii) — muscle force F holding a forearm and ball in equilibrium about the elbow
6(c)	6. Energy	state the principle of the conservation of energy and apply the principle to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 18	2025	2025 Q6(a)(ii) — minimum take-off speed of the cat from energy conservation
3(e)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship weight = mass × gravitational field strength to new situations or to solve related problems	4 / 17	2024	2024 Q4(a) — mass of a shopping cart from its weight of 50 N
3(i)	3. Force and Pressure	recall and apply the relationship pressure = force / area to new situations or to solve related problems	3 / 19	2023	2023 Q3(b) — show by calculation that a driver's boots sink into marshy ground but the vehicle's tracks do not (compare pressures)
12(e)	12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	recall and apply the relationship charge = current × time to new situations or to solve related problems	5 / 15	2025	2025 Q5(a)(iii) — charge passing through the cells in 340 s, with unit

Asked before, then went quiet

LO	Topic	Learning outcome	Asked	Last seen
6(d)	6. Energy	recall and apply the relationship work done = force × distance moved in the direction of the force to new situations or to solve related problems	10×	2021 (4 sittings ago)
4(d)	4. Dynamics	explain the effects of friction on the motion of a body	6×	2020 (5 sittings ago)
2(e)	2. Kinematics	plot and interpret a distance-time graph and a speed-time graph for motion in one direction.	4×	2019 (6 sittings ago)
12(j)	12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	recall and apply the relationship of the proportionality between resistance and the length and crosssectional area of a wire to new situations or to solve related…	3×	2018 (7 sittings ago)
11(c)	11. Light	recall and use the terms normal, angle of incidence and angle of refraction to describe the refraction of light	4×	2020 (5 sittings ago)

What this is — and is not

A frequency model

Paper 1 and the structured paper differ

A topic can be a certainty in multiple choice and absent from long answers, or the reverse. That is why each paper is forecast on its own rather than blended.

Thin new-syllabus evidence

Only a few sittings exist under the 5086 syllabus (first examined 2024), so the boost for those papers matters but cannot be proven. Re-run this report when more 5086 papers are available.

General sentiments: the 2026 Paper 2

Paper5086/02Oct/Nov 2026

Total marks65as sat

Section A55 marksQ1–9 · compulsory

Section B10 marksanswer 1 of Q10 (10) / Q11 (10)

Questions119 compulsory + 2 Section B options

Sub-parts49marked parts, counting both Section B options

Marks by level of thinking (as sat)

Recall 16 (25%)Knowledge & understanding 18.5 (28%)Handling information 30.5 (47%)

Previous 8 sittings (2018–2025): Recall 13% · Knowledge & understanding 37% · Handling information 49%

Marks by question style (as sat)

calculation 28.5recall 16extended-explanation 10.5apply 8data-interpretation 2

This was a gentle, very familiar Paper 2. Section A (Q1-9) is built from the staples: a units table, a ripple-tank wave calculation, a parachutist free body diagram, a series-circuit resistance question, a moments question on a hydraulic pump, a mains hair-dryer circuit, an electromagnet with plotting compasses, carbon-14 isotopes and half-life, and a stopping-distance bar chart. Almost every compulsory mark sits in the middle of the syllabus (Dynamics, Electricity, Waves, Radioactivity), while Thermal Physics and Light were left to the optional Section B.

The calculation load is high and mostly short: about 30 of the 55 Section A marks need a number (wave speed, series resistance, moments, P = VI, energy, half-life, kinetic energy, F = ma, v/a). A candidate who sets work out in full and carries units collects these routinely. The recall is crisp one-liners (define current and p.d., nature of beta, fuse function, double insulation), so well-drilled definitions pay off.

The demanding marks are the multi-step contexts: Q5 (moments about the pivot including the arm's own weight at its midpoint, then a pressure, then the weight of the load from the same oil pressure on a larger area), Q4(b)(ii) (shorter wire, new current), Q6(b) (current in X must add the motor and only one heating element) and Q9(d)(iii)-(iv) (total time = thinking time + braking time, and what extra mass changes). Q9 is also the data-handling question: a stacked bar chart with a deliberately missing bar at 20 m/s that has to be inferred.

Contexts are a fair mix of fresh settings (hydraulic pump, hair dryer, electric car, candle calorimetry) wrapped around standard ideas. The one piece of genuinely unfamiliar content is the hydraulic pressure transmission in Q5(d)(ii), where the pressure found in 5(c) has to be reused on the load.

Difficulty

About the same as 2024-2025 overall: slightly kinder on recall, slightly harder on the multi-step calculations (Q5 and Q9), with a friendly Section B.

Section B

Q10 (thermal: energy from a candle to water, heat-transfer modes, melting and the kinetic model) and Q11 (light and EM waves: refraction in a glass block, the spectrum, sound versus EM waves) are both 10 marks and both friendly. Q10 is the kinder choice for a candidate comfortable with energy bookkeeping: the heating calculation is guided by the given 4.2 J per g per degree and parts (b)-(d) are standard recall. Q11 holds the only 3-mark calculation (angle of refraction, where the 51 degrees is measured from the surface so i is 39 degrees) and a free-response 3-mark comparison of sound and EM waves, which suits strong wave recall but is more error-prone.

The mix of question forms

Heavy on short numerical calculations and show-that items, with an unusually large share of drawing tasks (free body diagram, current direction, compass needles, emergent ray), two data-reading items (Figure 9.1 bar chart, Table 8.1) and a handful of one-line recall definitions; no graph plotting or experimental design.

Notable questions

Q5(d)(ii)Hydraulic pump: the load's weight is found from the oil pressure in (c) times the load's cross-section area worked out from its 48.0 mm diameter. Pressure transmission in a liquid is not an explicit outcome (older papers were tagged R-HYDRAULIC), so this is a likely mark-loser and a flagged tagging call.
Q5(b)Show-that moments question worth three marks: the 25 N arm weight must be taken at the midpoint (40.0 cm from the pivot) and added to the 100 N moment, giving 9000 N cm over 4.5 cm = 2000 N. Candidates who omit the arm weight get 1778 N and cannot show the answer.
Q9(c)(ii)No bar is drawn at 20 m/s: candidates must add the calculated thinking distance (16 m) to a braking distance interpolated between the 15 and 25 m/s bars. An unusual 'estimate from a chart' demand and a likely mark-loser.
Q9(d)(iii)Two-step time: 0.8 s thinking time plus braking time v/a = 30/5 = 6 s. Many will give only the braking time.
Q6(b)Current in the fuse X with P closed and Q open: only the motor and one 920 W element operate, so P = 966 W and I = 4.2 A. Including both elements, or only one branch, loses marks.
Q3(c)Draw two forces to scale at constant velocity using the scale of Figure 3.1. In Figure 3.1 F1 is longer than F2, so at t2 both arrows must be the same length as F2 (the weight is unchanged), pointing opposite ways. Length and direction are both marked.
Q11(a)(ii)The 51 degrees is the angle to the surface, not to the normal. Using i = 51 gives r of about 31 degrees instead of 24.8 degrees; a classic trap in a 3-mark question.
Q11(c)Open 'any three ways' comparison of sound and EM waves (longitudinal vs transverse, needs a medium vs not, much slower speed). A recall-heavy extended answer that rewards organised revision notes.
Q1(b)Units to quantities for Bq (activity) and kWh (energy). The kWh is covered under electricity costs, but activity/becquerel is not an explicit outcome, so Bq is a likely mark-loser.
Q7(b)(i)Draw four compass needles around an iron-cored electromagnet: needs the field pattern of a solenoid with the polarity fixed by the battery. A drawing demand that candidates often get half-right.

Where marks were lost

Q5(b): forgetting the arm's own 25 N weight in the moments equation (or placing it at the end of the arm instead of the midpoint).
Q5(c)-(d): converting 180 mm2 and the 48.0 mm diameter consistently, giving the pressure a unit (N/mm2 or Pa), and then using the same pressure on the load's cross-section.
Q4(b): treating the voltmeter as across the whole circuit or wire W; W's p.d. is 4.5 - 2.9 = 1.6 V, so R = 16 ohm, and the new current needs the series total (8 + 29 ohm).
Q6(b)-(c): which branches are live for each switch state, and converting 11 minutes to 660 s before using E = Pt.
Q9(c)(ii) and 9(d)(iii): the interpolated estimate at 20 m/s and the missing braking time (30/5 = 6 s).
Q9(d)(iv): saying braking distance stays the same; with more mass the same braking force gives a smaller deceleration (or the car has more kinetic energy), so braking distance increases while thinking distance is unchanged.
Q11(a)(ii)-(iii): using 51 degrees as the angle of incidence, and drawing the emergent ray not parallel to the incident ray.
Q3(b) and Q8(c): describing the parachutist's motion without linking it to the resultant force (F1 greater than F2, so a resultant upward and decelerating), and giving 1 or 2 half-lives instead of 3 for a factor-of-8 decay.

Topical heat map of the 2026 Paper 2

Marks on each topic in the 2026 Paper 2 as a candidate sat it (Section A in full and each Section B option counted ×1/2, since a candidate answers 1 of 2), beside the average of the previous 8 sittings (2018–2025) and the forecast published on this site before the exam. Darker = heavier. Δ = paper minus forecast: blue the paper gave the topic more marks than forecast, orange fewer.

Topic	2026 paper	Prev 8 avg	Forecast	Δ vs forecast
1. Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement	5	1.2	1.4	+3.6
2. Kinematics	5	4.2	4.8	+0.2
3. Force and Pressure	6	5.9	5.8	+0.2
4. Dynamics	7	4.1	4.5	+2.5
5. Turning Effects of Forces	4	2.8	3.1	+0.9
6. Energy	3.5	5.1	5.3	-1.8
7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter	1.5	3.9	3.9	-2.4
8. Thermal Processes	2	3.5	3.8	-1.8
9. General Properties of Waves	4.5	5.1	5.4	-0.9
10. Electromagnetic Spectrum	1	2.7	3.0	-2.0
11. Light	2.5	4.6	4.5	-2.0
12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity	5	4.4	4.2	+0.8
13. D.C. Circuits	2	3.7	4.2	-2.2
14. Practical Electricity	7	4.0	4.9	+2.1
15. Magnetism and Electromagnetism	4	4.0	3.9	+0.1
16. Radioactivity	5	1.7	2.5	+2.5
Total	65	61.1	65.0

The previous-sittings average adds to less than 65 because older papers spent marks on content since cut from the syllabus; those marks are not counted.

What the 2026 Paper 2 tested, outcome by outcome

Every learning outcome a marked part of the paper was tagged to, grouped by topic. The marks beside an outcome are the printed marks of the parts that test it (a part tagged to two outcomes counts for both); dashed question chips are Section B options, which not every candidate answered.

1. Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement · 5 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

1(a) show an understanding that physical quantities typically consist of a numerical magnitude and a unit 2mQ1(b)
1(b) recall the following base quantities and their units: mass (kg), length (m), time (s), current (A), temperature (K), amount of substance (mol) 2mQ1(a)
1(e) select and explain the use of appropriate measuring instruments to measure or determine physical quantities listed in "Summary of key quantities… 1mQ5(d)(i)

2. Kinematics · 5 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

2(b) calculate average speed = distance travelled / time taken 5mQ9(b) Q9(c)(i) Q9(c)(ii) Q9(d)(iii)
2(c) state what is meant by uniform acceleration and calculate the value of acceleration using change in velocity / time taken 2mQ9(d)(iii)
2(e) plot and interpret a distance-time graph and a speed-time graph for motion in one direction. 2mQ9(b) Q9(c)(ii)

3. Force and Pressure · 6 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

3(a) identify and distinguish between contact forces (e.g. friction, air resistance, tension and normal force) and non-contact forces (e.g. gravitational… 2mQ3(a)
3(e) recall and apply the relationship weight = mass × gravitational field strength to new situations or to solve related problems 2mQ5(d)(ii)
3(i) recall and apply the relationship pressure = force / area to new situations or to solve related problems 4mQ5(c) Q5(d)(ii)

4. Dynamics · 7 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

4(a) apply Newton's Laws to:; (i) describe the effect of balanced and unbalanced forces on a body; (ii) describe the ways in which a force may change the… 4mQ3(b) Q3(c)
4(b) identify forces acting on a body and draw free body diagram(s) representing the forces acting on the body (for cases involving forces acting in at… 4mQ3(a) Q3(c)
4(c) recall and apply the relationship resultant force = mass × acceleration to new situations or to solve related problems 3mQ9(d)(ii) Q9(d)(iv)

5. Turning Effects of Forces · 4 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

5(b) recall and apply the relationship moment of a force (or torque) = force × perpendicular distance from the pivot to new situations or to solve related… 3mQ5(b)
5(d) apply the principle of moments to new situations or to solve related problems 3mQ5(b)
5(e) show an understanding that the weight of a body may be taken as acting at a single point known as its centre of gravity 4mQ5(a) Q5(b)

6. Energy · 3.5 marks as sat · 4 outcomes

6(a) show an understanding that there are energy stores, e.g. kinetic, potential (gravitational, chemical, elastic), nuclear and internal, and that energy… 4mQ9(a) Q10(a)(i) Q10(a)(ii)
6(b) recall and apply the relationships for kinetic energy (Ek = ½ m v2) and gravitational potential energy near the Earth's surface (Ep = m g h) to new… 3mQ9(d)(i) Q9(d)(iv)
6(c) state the principle of the conservation of energy and apply the principle to new situations or to solve related problems 4mQ10(a)(ii) Q10(c)
6(e) recall and apply the relationship power = energy transfer / time taken to new situations or to solve related problems 2mQ6(c)

7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter · 1.5 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

7(b) use the kinetic particle model to describe the different states of matter (solids, liquids and gases), relating their physical properties to the… 2mQ10(d)(ii)
7(c) relate the rise in temperature of a body to the increase in average kinetic energy of all the particles in the body 1mQ10(d)(i)
7(e) describe melting/solidification and boiling/condensation as processes of energy transfer without a change in temperature 1mQ10(d)(i)

8. Thermal Processes · 2 marks as sat · 2 outcomes

8(c) describe, in terms of density changes, how convection occurs in fluids 2mQ10(b)
8(e) apply the concepts of conduction, convection and radiation in everyday examples. 4mQ10(b) Q10(c)

9. General Properties of Waves · 4.5 marks as sat · 5 outcomes

9(a) describe what is meant by wave motion as illustrated by vibrations in ropes and springs and by waves in a ripple tank (including use of the term… 1mQ2(a)
9(c) define and use the terms speed, frequency, wavelength, period and amplitude including graphical representations 2mQ2(a) Q2(b)
9(d) recall and apply the relationship speed of wave = frequency × wavelength to new situations or to solve related problems 1mQ2(c)
9(e) compare transverse and longitudinal waves and give suitable examples of each 3mQ11(c)
9(f) show an understanding that sound can be produced by vibrating sources and a medium is required for the transmission of sound. 3mQ11(c)

10. Electromagnetic Spectrum · 1 mark as sat · 4 outcomes

10(a) state that all electromagnetic waves are transverse waves that travel with the same speed in vacuum 3mQ11(c)
10(b) describe the main regions of the electromagnetic spectrum in order of wavelength and frequency 1mQ11(b)(i)
10(c) state examples of typical uses of the following regions of the electromagnetic spectrum:; (i) radio waves (e.g. radio and television communication… 1mQ11(b)(i)
10(d) describe how over-exposure to electromagnetic waves can have hazardous effects (e.g. heating and ionising effects of radiation) on living cells and… 1mQ11(b)(ii)

11. Light · 2.5 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

11(c) recall and use the terms normal, angle of incidence and angle of refraction to describe the refraction of light 4mQ11(a)(ii) Q11(a)(iii)
11(d) recall and apply the relationship sin i / sin r = constant to new situations or to solve related problems 4mQ11(a)(ii) Q11(a)(iii)
11(e) define refractive index of a medium in terms of the ratio of speed of light in vacuum and in the medium 1mQ11(a)(i)

12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity · 5 marks as sat · 4 outcomes

12(c) state that current is the rate of flow of charge and that it is measured in amperes 1mQ4(a)(i)
12(d) distinguish between conventional current and electron flow 1mQ7(a)
12(g) state that the potential difference (p.d.) across a component in a circuit is the work done per unit charge in driving charges through the component… 1mQ4(a)(ii)
12(j) recall and apply the relationship of the proportionality between resistance and the length and crosssectional area of a wire to new situations or to… 2mQ4(b)(ii)

13. D.C. Circuits · 2 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

13(c) state that the sum of the potential differences in a series circuit is equal to the potential difference across the whole circuit and apply the… 2mQ4(b)(i)
13(d) state that the sum of the currents in the separate branches of a parallel circuit is equal to the current from the source and apply the principle to… 2mQ6(b)
13(g) recall and apply the relevant relationships, including R = V / I and those for current, potential differences and resistors in series and in parallel… 4mQ4(b)(i) Q4(b)(ii)

14. Practical Electricity · 7 marks as sat · 4 outcomes

14(b) recall and apply the relationships P = V I and E = V I t to new situations or to solve related problems 4mQ6(b) Q6(c)
14(c) calculate the cost of using electrical appliances where the energy unit is the kW h 2mQ1(b)
14(e) explain the use of fuses and circuit breakers in electrical circuits and of fuse ratings 2mQ6(a)(i) Q6(a)(ii)
14(f) explain the need for earthing metal casings and for double insulation 1mQ6(d)

15. Magnetism and Electromagnetism · 4 marks as sat · 3 outcomes

15(b) describe induced magnetism caused by placing magnetic material close to a strong magnet or within a current-carrying solenoid 2mQ7(b)(ii)
15(d) describe how a bar magnet (e.g. a compass) can be used to determine the direction of a magnetic field 2mQ7(b)(i)
15(f) draw the pattern of the magnetic field due to currents in straight wires and in solenoids and state the effect on the magnetic field due to change in… 4mQ7(b)(i) Q7(b)(ii)

16. Radioactivity · 5 marks as sat · 5 outcomes

16(a) describe the composition of an atom in terms of a positively charged nucleus (with protons and neutrons) and negatively charged electrons 1mQ8(a)
16(b) use the terms proton (atomic) number Z, nucleon (mass) number A and isotope 1mQ8(a)
16(d) show an understanding that nuclear decay is a random and spontaneous process whereby an unstable nucleus loses energy by emitting radiation 1mQ8(b)(i)
16(e) show an understanding of the nature of alpha (α), beta (β), and gamma (γ) radiation (including ionising effect and penetrating power) [β-particles… 1mQ8(b)(ii)
16(g) use the term half-life in simple calculations, which might involve information in tables or decay curves 2mQ8(c)

Comparison with our 2026 prediction

Against the forecast published on this site before the exam, the 2026 Paper 2 came within 1.5 marks of it on 6 of 16 topics, with a mean absolute error of 1.6 marks per topic (simply taking the average of the previous 8 sittings would have scored 1.7, and repeating 2025 exactly 1.8). The biggest misses: Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement (forecast 1.4, paper 5); Radioactivity (forecast 2.5, paper 5); Dynamics (forecast 4.5, paper 7). 13 of the 16 outcomes on our “keeps returning” list were asked, and 3 of the 5 that had “gone quiet” came back. 9 outcomes came in cold (not in a Paper 2 for 5+ years, or never), and 4 of the 20 most heavily weighted outcomes were not asked at all.

Topic by topic

Topic and verdict	Forecast	2026 paper	Error
1. Physical Quantities, Units and MeasurementUnder-predicted by 3.6: more than in any of the previous 8 sittings.	1.4	5	+3.6
2. KinematicsOn target.	4.8	5	+0.2
3. Force and PressureOn target.	5.8	6	+0.2
4. DynamicsUnder-predicted by 2.5: more than in any of the previous 8 sittings.	4.5	7	+2.5
5. Turning Effects of ForcesOn target.	3.1	4	+0.9
6. EnergyOver-predicted by 1.8, but inside its recent range (3–8).	5.3	3.5	-1.8
7. Kinetic Particle Model of MatterOver-predicted by 2.4: less than in any of the previous 8 sittings.	3.9	1.5	-2.4
8. Thermal ProcessesOver-predicted by 1.8: less than in any of the previous 8 sittings.	3.8	2	-1.8
9. General Properties of WavesOn target.	5.4	4.5	-0.9
10. Electromagnetic SpectrumOver-predicted by 2.0, but inside its recent range (0.5–4).	3.0	1	-2.0
11. LightOver-predicted by 2.0: less than in any of the previous 8 sittings.	4.5	2.5	-2.0
12. Electric Charge and Current of ElectricityOn target.	4.2	5	+0.8
13. D.C. CircuitsOver-predicted by 2.2, but inside its recent range (0–6).	4.2	2	-2.2
14. Practical ElectricityUnder-predicted by 2.1: more than in any of the previous 8 sittings.	4.9	7	+2.1
15. Magnetism and ElectromagnetismOn target.	3.9	4	+0.1
16. RadioactivityUnder-predicted by 2.5, but inside its recent range (0–7).	2.5	5	+2.5
Mean absolute error			1.6

Error = paper minus forecast, in marks as sat. Over-predicted (forecast too high): Kinetic Particle Model of Matter; D.C. Circuits; Light; Electromagnetic Spectrum; Thermal Processes; Energy. Under-predicted (forecast too low): Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement; Radioactivity; Dynamics; Practical Electricity. Within 1.5 marks counts as on target.

“Keeps returning”: did they come?

The 16 outcomes the forecast said Paper 2 keeps returning to. 13 were asked.

LO	Learning outcome	In the 2026 paper
14(b)	recall and apply the relationships P = V I and E = V I t to new situations or to solve related problems	asked Q6(b) Q6(c)
7(e)	describe melting/solidification and boiling/condensation as processes of energy transfer without a change in temperature	asked Q10(d)(i)
3(g)	recall and apply the relationship density = mass / volume to new situations or to solve related problems	not asked
4(a)	apply Newton's Laws to:; (i) describe the effect of balanced and unbalanced forces on a body; (ii) describe the ways in which a force may change the motion of a body; (iii) identify action-reaction pairs acting on two interacting bodies (stating of Newton's Laws is not required)	asked Q3(b) Q3(c)
6(b)	recall and apply the relationships for kinetic energy (Ek = ½ m v2) and gravitational potential energy near the Earth's surface (Ep = m g h) to new situations or to solve related problems	asked Q9(d)(i) Q9(d)(iv)
10(a)	state that all electromagnetic waves are transverse waves that travel with the same speed in vacuum	asked Q11(c)
9(d)	recall and apply the relationship speed of wave = frequency × wavelength to new situations or to solve related problems	asked Q2(c)
8(e)	apply the concepts of conduction, convection and radiation in everyday examples.	asked Q10(b) Q10(c)
10(c)	state examples of typical uses of the following regions of the electromagnetic spectrum:; (i) radio waves (e.g. radio and television communication, astronomy and RFID tags); (ii) microwaves (e.g. mobile (cell) phones, microwave oven and satellite television); (iii) infrared (e.g. infra-red remote controllers, intruder alarms and thermal imaging); (iv) visible light (e.g. photography, optical fibres in medicine and telecommunications); (v) ultraviolet (e.g. sunbeds, bank note authentication and disinfecting water); (vi) X-rays (e.g. medical radiology, security screening and industrial defect detection); (vii) gamma (γ) rays (e.g. sterilising food, detection of cancer and its treatment)	asked Q11(b)(i)
13(g)	recall and apply the relevant relationships, including R = V / I and those for current, potential differences and resistors in series and in parallel circuits, in calculations involving a whole circuit.	asked Q4(b)(i) Q4(b)(ii)
12(i)	apply the relationship R = V / I to new situations or to solve related problems	not asked
5(d)	apply the principle of moments to new situations or to solve related problems	asked Q5(b)
6(c)	state the principle of the conservation of energy and apply the principle to new situations or to solve related problems	asked Q10(a)(ii) Q10(c)
3(e)	recall and apply the relationship weight = mass × gravitational field strength to new situations or to solve related problems	asked Q5(d)(ii)
3(i)	recall and apply the relationship pressure = force / area to new situations or to solve related problems	asked Q5(c) Q5(d)(ii)
12(e)	recall and apply the relationship charge = current × time to new situations or to solve related problems	not asked

“Went quiet”: which came back?

Outcomes asked repeatedly in Paper 2 that had dropped out of the recent sittings. 3 of 5 came back.

LO	Learning outcome	In the 2026 paper
6(d)	recall and apply the relationship work done = force × distance moved in the direction of the force to new situations or to solve related problemsBefore: 10× · last 2021	still quiet
4(d)	explain the effects of friction on the motion of a bodyBefore: 6× · last 2020	still quiet
2(e)	plot and interpret a distance-time graph and a speed-time graph for motion in one direction.Before: 4× · last 2019	came back Q9(b) Q9(c)(ii)
12(j)	recall and apply the relationship of the proportionality between resistance and the length and crosssectional area of a wire to new situations or to solve related problemsBefore: 3× · last 2018	came back Q4(b)(ii)
11(c)	recall and use the terms normal, angle of incidence and angle of refraction to describe the refraction of lightBefore: 4× · last 2020	came back Q11(a)(ii) Q11(a)(iii)

Surprises

Came in cold

Outcomes the 2026 Paper 2 tested that had not been in a Paper 2 for 5+ years, or ever. Their recency weight was low, so the forecast gave them little.

LO	Learning outcome	Where in 2026
1(b)	recall the following base quantities and their units: mass (kg), length (m), time (s), current (A), temperature (K), amount of substance (mol)Before 2026: never in a Paper 2; Paper 1 last 2021	Q1(a)
9(a)	describe what is meant by wave motion as illustrated by vibrations in ropes and springs and by waves in a ripple tank (including use of the term wavefront)Before 2026: never in a Paper 2; Paper 1 last 2024	Q2(a)
10(d)	describe how over-exposure to electromagnetic waves can have hazardous effects (e.g. heating and ionising effects of radiation) on living cells and tissueBefore 2026: never in a Paper 2; never in Paper 1 either	Q11(b)(ii)
12(c)	state that current is the rate of flow of charge and that it is measured in amperesBefore 2026: never in a Paper 2; never in Paper 1 either	Q4(a)(i)
16(b)	use the terms proton (atomic) number Z, nucleon (mass) number A and isotopeBefore 2026: never in a Paper 2; Paper 1 last 2025	Q8(a)
12(j)	recall and apply the relationship of the proportionality between resistance and the length and crosssectional area of a wire to new situations or to solve related problemsBefore 2026: Paper 2 last 2018 (8 years before)	Q4(b)(ii)
2(e)	plot and interpret a distance-time graph and a speed-time graph for motion in one direction.Before 2026: Paper 2 last 2019 (7 years before)	Q9(b) Q9(c)(ii)
11(c)	recall and use the terms normal, angle of incidence and angle of refraction to describe the refraction of lightBefore 2026: Paper 2 last 2020 (6 years before)	Q11(a)(ii) Q11(a)(iii)
3(a)	identify and distinguish between contact forces (e.g. friction, air resistance, tension and normal force) and non-contact forces (e.g. gravitational, electrostatic and magnetic forces)Before 2026: Paper 2 last 2021 (5 years before)	Q3(a)

Heavily weighted, not asked

The top 20 outcomes of the recency-weighted ranking for Paper 2 (every sitting before 2026); these 4 did not appear. on our list = on the published “keeps returning” list.

Rank	LO	Learning outcome
3	3(g)	recall and apply the relationship density = mass / volume to new situations or to solve related problemsAsked 25× in Paper 2, last 2025 on our list
11	12(i)	apply the relationship R = V / I to new situations or to solve related problemsAsked 23× in Paper 2, last 2024 on our list
16	12(e)	recall and apply the relationship charge = current × time to new situations or to solve related problemsAsked 15× in Paper 2, last 2025 on our list
20	11(h)	describe the characteristics of images (e.g. real / virtual, magnified / diminished, and upright / inverted) formed by a thin converging lens (recall of the characteristics of images formed for specific object distances is not required).Asked 15× in Paper 2, last 2024

Outcomes not tested in the 2026 Paper 2

57 of the 112 learning outcomes in the Science (Physics) syllabus (51%) had no marked part of the 2026 Paper 2 on them, Section B options included. 23 of them are P1 regular (asked 3+ times in Paper 1 across the archive) and 6 are overdue (last seen in any paper 5+ years before 2026, or never; amber rows). Last seen counts every paper of this subject, Paper 1 included; P1 · P2 = how many times each outcome has been asked in each paper. These outcomes feed the Paper 1 specimen sets.

LO	Learning outcome	Last seen	P1 · P2
1. Physical Quantities, Units and Measurement — 3 of 6 not tested
1(c)	use the following prefixes and their symbols to indicate decimal sub-multiples and multiples of the SI units: nano (n), micro (µ), milli (m), centi (c), deci (d), kilo (k), mega (M), giga (G), tera (T) P1 regular	2025	3 · 7
1(d)	show an understanding of the orders of magnitude of the sizes of common objects ranging from a typical atom to the Earth	2024	1 · 2
1(f)	state what is meant by scalar and vector quantities and give common examples of each P1 regular	2025	5 · 4
2. Kinematics — 6 of 9 not tested
2(a)	state what is meant by speed and velocity	2025	0 · 4
2(d)	interpret given examples of non-uniform acceleration P1 regular	2025	5 · 1
2(f)	deduce from the shape of a distance-time graph when a body travelling in one direction is:; (i) at rest; (ii) moving with uniform speed; (iii) moving with non-uniform speed	2022	2 · 2
2(g)	deduce from the shape of a speed-time graph when a body travelling in one direction is:; (i) at rest; (ii) moving with uniform speed; (iii) moving with uniform acceleration; (iv) moving with non-uniform acceleration P1 regular	2025	9 · 8
2(h)	calculate the area under a speed-time graph to determine the distance travelled for motion in one direction with uniform speed or uniform acceleration P1 regular	2024	3 · 9
2(i)	state that the acceleration of free fall for a body near to the Earth is constant and is approximately 10 m/s2 P1 regular	2024	3 · 1
3. Force and Pressure — 6 of 9 not tested
3(b)	state that mass is a measure of the amount of matter in a body	2025	1 · 1
3(c)	state that a gravitational field is a region in which a mass experiences a force due to gravitational attraction overdue	2021	2 · 1
3(d)	define gravitational field strength, g, as gravitational force per unit mass placed at that point overdue	2021	2 · 1
3(f)	distinguish between mass and weight P1 regular	2025	4 · 2
3(g)	recall and apply the relationship density = mass / volume to new situations or to solve related problems P1 regular	2025	9 · 25
3(h)	define pressure in terms of force and area	2023	1 · 6
4. Dynamics — 1 of 4 not tested
4(d)	explain the effects of friction on the motion of a body P1 regular	2023	5 · 6
5. Turning Effects of Forces — 2 of 5 not tested
5(a)	describe the moment of a force about a pivot in terms of its turning effect and relate this to everyday examples	2022	0 · 4
5(c)	state the principle of moments for a body in equilibrium	2025	0 · 2
6. Energy — 1 of 5 not tested
6(d)	recall and apply the relationship work done = force × distance moved in the direction of the force to new situations or to solve related problems P1 regular	2024	9 · 10
7. Kinetic Particle Model of Matter — 2 of 5 not tested
7(a)	compare the physical properties of solids, liquids and gases	2025	1 · 3
7(d)	describe internal energy as an energy store that is made up of the total kinetic energy associated with the random motion of the particles and the total potential energy between the particles in the system	2024	2 · 4
8. Thermal Processes — 3 of 5 not tested
8(a)	show an understanding that energy is transferred (by heating) from a region of higher temperature to a region of lower temperature until thermal equilibrium is achieved between the two regions	2025	0 · 4
8(b)	describe, in microscopic terms, how conduction occurs in solids (via vibration of atoms/molecules and movement of electrons)	2025	2 · 10
8(d)	explain that energy transfer by electromagnetic radiation does not require a material medium and that this rate of energy transfer to/from a body is affected by its:; (i) surface colour and texture; (ii) surface temperature; (iii) surface area P1 regular	2025	5 · 13
9. General Properties of Waves — 4 of 9 not tested
9(b)	show an understanding that waves transfer energy without transferring matter	2025	1 · 3
9(g)	describe the longitudinal nature of sound waves in terms of the processes of compression and rarefaction	2025	0 · 9
9(h)	relate loudness of a sound wave to its amplitude and pitch to its frequency P1 regular	2024	4 · 12
9(i)	describe how the reflection of sound may produce an echo, and how this may be used for measuring distances P1 regular	2023	10 · 1
10. Electromagnetic Spectrum — 0 of 4 not tested
Every outcome in this topic was tested.
11. Light — 5 of 8 not tested
11(a)	recall and use the terms normal, angle of incidence and angle of reflection to describe the reflection of light	2025	2 · 2
11(b)	state that, for reflection, the angle of incidence is equal to the angle of reflection and use this principle in constructions, measurements and calculations P1 regular	2025	6 · 3
11(f)	describe the action of a thin converging lens on a beam of light	2022	1 · 4
11(g)	define the focal length for a converging lens P1 regular	2024	3 · 4
11(h)	describe the characteristics of images (e.g. real / virtual, magnified / diminished, and upright / inverted) formed by a thin converging lens (recall of the characteristics of images formed for specific object distances is not required). P1 regular	2024	6 · 15
12. Electric Charge and Current of Electricity — 6 of 10 not tested
12(a)	state that there are positive and negative charges and that charge is measured in coulombs	2023	0 · 3
12(b)	state that unlike charges attract and like charges repel	2024	2 · 5
12(e)	recall and apply the relationship charge = current × time to new situations or to solve related problems P1 regular	2025	3 · 15
12(f)	state that the electromotive force (e.m.f.) of an electrical source of energy is measured in volts overdue	2021	1 · 0
12(h)	state that resistance = p.d. / current	2022	2 · 1
12(i)	apply the relationship R = V / I to new situations or to solve related problems P1 regular	2025	8 · 23
13. D.C. Circuits — 4 of 7 not tested
13(a)	draw circuit diagrams with power sources (cell or battery), switches, lamps, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), resistors (fixed and variable), fuses, ammeters and voltmeters	2024	0 · 3
13(b)	state that the current at every point in a series circuit is the same and apply the principle to new situations or to solve related problems P1 regular	2025	5 · 4
13(e)	state that the potential difference across the separate branches of a parallel circuit is the same and apply the principle to new situations or to solve related problems P1 regular	2025	8 · 9
13(f)	recall and apply the formulae for the effective resistance of a number of resistors in series and in parallel to new situations or to solve related problems P1 regular	2025	12 · 9
14. Practical Electricity — 5 of 9 not tested
14(a)	describe the use of the heating effect of electricity in appliances such as electric kettles, ovens and heaters overdue	never	0 · 0
14(d)	state the hazards of using electricity in the following situations:; (i) damaged insulation; (ii) overheating of cables; (iii) damp conditions	2025	1 · 1
14(g)	state the meaning of the terms live, neutral and earth	2025	0 · 6
14(h)	describe the wiring in a mains plug	2024	0 · 4
14(i)	explain why switches, fuses, and circuit breakers are fitted to the live wire. P1 regular	2024	4 · 2
15. Magnetism and Electromagnetism — 6 of 9 not tested
15(a)	state the properties of magnets	2024	2 · 10
15(c)	distinguish between temporary magnets (e.g. iron) and permanent magnets (e.g. steel) in terms of their properties and uses	2023	1 · 8
15(e)	draw the magnetic field pattern around a bar magnet and between the poles of two bar magnets. overdue	2019	2 · 0
15(g)	describe experiments to show the force on a current-carrying conductor in a magnetic field, including the effect of reversing; (i) the current; (ii) the direction of the field	2025	2 · 3
15(h)	deduce the relative directions of force, field and current when any two of these quantities are at right angles to each other using Fleming’s left-hand rule P1 regular	2025	8 · 6
15(i)	explain how a current-carrying coil in a magnetic field (e.g. in a motor) experiences a turning effect (recall of structure of an electric motor is not required)	2024	2 · 2
16. Radioactivity — 3 of 8 not tested
16(c)	use and interpret the term nuclide and use the nuclide notation 𝑍𝑍𝑋𝑋𝐴𝐴	2025	1 · 2
16(f)	show an understanding of background radiation overdue	never	0 · 0
16(h)	state the applications (e.g. medical and industrial uses) and hazards of radioactivity.	2025	1 · 3

Paper 1 specimen sets

Five Paper 1 (multiple-choice) sets in the layout and conventions of the real paper, based on the 2026 Paper 2: they put the weight on the outcomes the 2026 Paper 2 did not test (the “Not tested in 2026” tab). Paper 1 for 2026 is still to come, so these are practice for it. They are original questions, not the real paper. Each set has its full mark scheme, so you can mark yourself afterwards.